
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
china-x-taiwan-military-clash-before-2027
Volume
816.1K
24h volume
15.9K
1w volume
36.4K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
57.6K
Liquidity CLOB
57.6K
Start
Nov 13, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 13, 2025
Event ID
79230
Slug
china-x-taiwan-military-clash-before-2027
Markets
1
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