China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

china-x-taiwan-military-clash-before-2027

Volume

824.2K

24h volume

7.4K

1w volume

40.7K

Open interest

0

Liquidity

65.5K

Liquidity CLOB

65.5K

Start

Nov 13, 2025

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Nov 13, 2025

Event ID

79230

Slug

china-x-taiwan-military-clash-before-2027

Markets

1

Tags

PoliticsWorldtaiwanForeign PolicyChinaGeopoliticsHide From China
Raw event data
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