Iran coup attempt by June 30?

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    "context_description": "Lack of credible reports or intelligence on any organized coup plot drives the 73.5% implied probability for no Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting trader consensus on regime stability. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei maintains firm control through the loyal Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has swiftly suppressed past dissent amid ongoing protests. Recent escalations—such as Iran's missile barrages on Israel and retaliatory strikes—have heightened external tensions but shown no signs of internal military defections or high-level plots. Without primary evidence like arrests of conspirators or mass unrest, traders view rumors on social media as unsubstantiated, prioritizing historical resilience over speculation ahead of the deadline.",
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