This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
Ticker
italy-nordio-reform-referendum-passes
Volume
379.1K
24h volume
230.4K
1w volume
313.9K
Open interest
154.2K
Liquidity
19.6K
Liquidity CLOB
19.6K
Start
Jan 7, 2026
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 7, 2026
Event ID
147794
Slug
italy-nordio-reform-referendum-passes
Markets
1
{
"id": "147794",
"ticker": "italy-nordio-reform-referendum-passes",
"slug": "italy-nordio-reform-referendum-passes",
"title": "Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?",
"description": "This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nIf the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2026-01-07T22:33:14.341812Z",
"creationDate": "2026-01-07T22:33:14.341808Z",
"endDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/italy-nordio-reform-referendum-passes-SqRqpGJiMTKi.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/italy-nordio-reform-referendum-passes-SqRqpGJiMTKi.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": true,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 19638.8654,
"volume": 379075.9551550009,
"openInterest": 154158.39141,
"createdAt": "2026-01-06T19:50:52.729377Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-23T10:45:31.168257Z",
"competitive": 0.9919650828290844,
"volume24hr": 230362.10221600014,
"volume1wk": 313917.6325379997,
"volume1mo": 359925.972677999,
"volume1yr": 379075.95515499904,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 19638.8654,
"commentCount": 523,
"markets": [
{
"id": "1124253",
"question": "Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?",
"conditionId": "0x3f297f4f9083bb1dcd118683d2b75ee79064997cf6ad078a85fd612c3de85083",
"slug": "italy-nordio-reform-referendum-passes",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "20957.4468",
"startDate": "2026-01-07T22:33:01.049Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/italy-nordio-reform-referendum-passes-SqRqpGJiMTKi.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/italy-nordio-reform-referendum-passes-SqRqpGJiMTKi.jpg",
"description": "This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nIf the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.4\", \"0.6\"]",
"volume": "379701.53515200096",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-06T19:50:53.828591Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-23T10:45:04.529121Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0x5285cc2432f554a719e187249be21b96e9fbcca35828c996f5351acbd6111c5a",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 379701.53515200096,
"liquidityNum": 20957.4468,
"endDateIso": "2026-03-31",
"startDateIso": "2026-01-07",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 230936.71221300014,
"volume1wk": 314543.2125349997,
"volume1mo": 360551.552674999,
"volume1yr": 379701.53515199904,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"72011231072462679087270523340672725549955186145298756875462147357638355580004\", \"74120180103583465788575963758876090458212491440586436884613380246690210012677\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 230936.71221300014,
"volume1wkClob": 314543.2125349997,
"volume1moClob": 360551.552674999,
"volume1yrClob": 379701.53515199904,
"volumeClob": 379701.53515200096,
"liquidityClob": 20957.4468,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-07T22:32:39Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.9900990099009901,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "90972",
"conditionId": "0x3f297f4f9083bb1dcd118683d2b75ee79064997cf6ad078a85fd612c3de85083",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 600,
"startDate": "2026-03-02",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 200,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.02,
"oneDayPriceChange": 0.02,
"oneHourPriceChange": 0.025,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.1,
"oneMonthPriceChange": -0.14,
"lastTradePrice": 0.41,
"bestBid": 0.39,
"bestAsk": 0.41,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-07T22:32:10.200454Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "2",
"label": "Politics",
"slug": "politics",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
"updatedBy": 13,
"createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "101970",
"label": "World",
"slug": "world",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:02.420693Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "1370",
"label": "Italy",
"slug": "italy",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2024-02-21 00:12:14.22+00",
"createdAt": "2024-02-21T00:12:14.27Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-20T20:00:25.613683Z",
"isCarousel": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "1597",
"label": "Global Elections",
"slug": "global-elections",
"forceShow": true,
"publishedAt": "2024-03-07 20:44:01.258+00",
"createdBy": 15,
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2024-03-07T20:41:56.773Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:06.772403Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "144",
"label": "Elections",
"slug": "elections",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:24:31.008+00",
"updatedBy": 13,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:24:31.198Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:32:04.396035Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": true,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"featuredOrder": 7,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Low expected voter turnout below the 50% quorum threshold drives trader consensus toward \"No\" at 57.5% on the Italy judicial reform referendum, scheduled for June 8-9, 2024. Polls forecast participation around 30%, similar to the invalid 2016 constitutional referendum's 31.2%, ensuring abrogative questions on magistrate career separation, Superior Council of Magistracy elections, ministerial case assignments, performance evaluations, and prosecutorial liability would fail regardless of votes cast. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's coalition, including Brothers of Italy and Lega, promotes abstention to preserve reforms, while opposition like the Democratic Party and Five Star Movement shows limited mobilization. Absent a turnout surge, status quo judicial rules persist.",
"context_requires_regen": true,
"context_updated_at": "2026-03-23T10:40:41.557Z"
}
}