Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.

Ticker

italy-nordio-reform-referendum-passes

Volume

93.2K

24h volume

11.6K

1w volume

46.9K

Open interest

0

Liquidity

19.1K

Liquidity CLOB

19.1K

Start

Jan 7, 2026

End

Mar 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jan 7, 2026

Event ID

147794

Slug

italy-nordio-reform-referendum-passes

Markets

1

Raw event data
{
  "id": "147794",
  "ticker": "italy-nordio-reform-referendum-passes",
  "slug": "italy-nordio-reform-referendum-passes",
  "title": "Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?",
  "description": "This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nIf the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-01-07T22:33:14.341812Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-01-07T22:33:14.341808Z",
  "endDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/italy-nordio-reform-referendum-passes-SqRqpGJiMTKi.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/italy-nordio-reform-referendum-passes-SqRqpGJiMTKi.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 19071.51,
  "volume": 93189.75220800006,
  "openInterest": 0,
  "createdAt": "2026-01-06T19:50:52.729377Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-03-20T14:18:51.270321Z",
  "competitive": 0.9734965562559322,
  "volume24hr": 11555.945087000002,
  "volume1wk": 46936.20904199998,
  "volume1mo": 75415.67475699988,
  "volume1yr": 93189.75220799992,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 19071.51,
  "commentCount": 157,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "1124253",
      "question": "Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?",
      "conditionId": "0x3f297f4f9083bb1dcd118683d2b75ee79064997cf6ad078a85fd612c3de85083",
      "slug": "italy-nordio-reform-referendum-passes",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "19071.51",
      "startDate": "2026-01-07T22:33:01.049Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/italy-nordio-reform-referendum-passes-SqRqpGJiMTKi.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/italy-nordio-reform-referendum-passes-SqRqpGJiMTKi.jpg",
      "description": "This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nIf the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.335\", \"0.665\"]",
      "volume": "93189.75220800006",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-01-06T19:50:53.828591Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-20T14:18:06.195546Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0x5285cc2432f554a719e187249be21b96e9fbcca35828c996f5351acbd6111c5a",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 93189.75220800006,
      "liquidityNum": 19071.51,
      "endDateIso": "2026-03-31",
      "startDateIso": "2026-01-07",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 11555.945087000002,
      "volume1wk": 46936.20904199998,
      "volume1mo": 75415.67475699988,
      "volume1yr": 93189.75220799992,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"72011231072462679087270523340672725549955186145298756875462147357638355580004\", \"74120180103583465788575963758876090458212491440586436884613380246690210012677\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 11555.945087000002,
      "volume1wkClob": 46936.20904199998,
      "volume1moClob": 75415.67475699988,
      "volume1yrClob": 93189.75220799992,
      "volumeClob": 93189.75220800006,
      "liquidityClob": 19071.51,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-07T22:32:39Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.9734965562559322,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "90972",
          "conditionId": "0x3f297f4f9083bb1dcd118683d2b75ee79064997cf6ad078a85fd612c3de85083",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 20,
          "startDate": "2026-03-02",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 200,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
      "spread": 0.03,
      "oneDayPriceChange": 0.02,
      "oneHourPriceChange": 0.025,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": -0.1,
      "oneMonthPriceChange": -0.14,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.32,
      "bestBid": 0.32,
      "bestAsk": 0.35,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-07T22:32:10.200454Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "101970",
      "label": "World",
      "slug": "world",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:02.420693Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "1370",
      "label": "italy",
      "slug": "italy",
      "publishedAt": "2024-02-21 00:12:14.22+00",
      "createdAt": "2024-02-21T00:12:14.27Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:21:41.846794Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "1597",
      "label": "Global Elections",
      "slug": "global-elections",
      "forceShow": true,
      "publishedAt": "2024-03-07 20:44:01.258+00",
      "createdBy": 15,
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2024-03-07T20:41:56.773Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:06.772403Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "144",
      "label": "Elections",
      "slug": "elections",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:24:31.008+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:24:31.198Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:32:04.396035Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "The leading factor behind the 66.5% \"No\" odds on Italy's judicial reform referendum is the abrogative vote's quorum requirement—over 50% turnout needed for validity—with polls forecasting participation below 40%, as in past failed referendums like 2016 and 2021. Premier Giorgia Meloni's government opposes repeal of 2022 reforms targeting trial delays and magistrate career rules, urging abstention, while opposition leaders from PD and M5S rally voters. Recent surveys from SWG and Ipsos show tepid public interest amid economic priorities, reinforcing trader consensus that low mobilization will invalidate the June outcome despite valid turnout signatures collected last year.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-03-20T14:18:29.541Z"
  }
}