
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ticker
us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by-may-31
Volume
368.1K
24h volume
187.5K
1w volume
368.1K
Open interest
267.9K
Liquidity
140.7K
Liquidity CLOB
140.7K
Start
Mar 31, 2026
End
May 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 31, 2026
Event ID
329654
Slug
us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by-may-31
Markets
1
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"context_description": "Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism over US acquisition of Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, driven by stalled nuclear diplomacy and the high risks of military alternatives. Recent reports detail a US military plan, at President Trump's request, for special forces to seize nearly 1,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium—likely stored in hardened tunnels—via excavation and airlift, but experts emphasize radiation hazards, chemical risks, and operational complexities that make success improbable within two months. Iran rejected US demands to halt enrichment or transfer stockpiles during February-March indirect talks mediated by Oman, insisting on domestic capabilities despite IAEA concerns over its near-weapons-grade holdings post-2025 US strikes. Absent a surprise diplomatic breakthrough, traders see formidable barriers to resolution.",
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"context_updated_at": "2026-04-04T00:19:10.572Z"
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}