US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ticker

us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by-may-31

Volume

12.7K

24h volume

12.7K

1w volume

12.7K

Open interest

12.1K

Liquidity

40.7K

Liquidity CLOB

40.7K

Start

Mar 31, 2026

End

May 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 31, 2026

Event ID

329654

Slug

us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by-may-31

Markets

1

Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability on \"No\" for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, anchored by the breakdown of 2025–2026 nuclear negotiations following US airstrikes on key facilities in June 2025, which left Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade 60% enriched uranium—sufficient for up to 11 bombs—largely intact and relocated to hardened sites like Isfahan. Recent Trump administration statements, including President Trump's March 31 remarks signaling a military drawdown without requiring uranium handover and Secretary Rubio's insistence on relinquishment, underscore no imminent diplomatic agreement or confirmed special forces retrieval amid high operational risks from deeply buried stockpiles. IAEA reports confirm pre-strike accumulation, but no verified transfer developments have emerged in the past week to shift odds.",
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