Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

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    "context_description": "Alberta separatists' Stay Free Alberta petition has reportedly surpassed the 177,732-signature threshold required under citizen initiative rules, positioning an independence referendum question—\"Do you agree that Alberta should cease to be part of Canada?\"—for potential inclusion on the province's scheduled October 19, 2026 ballot, as pledged by Premier Danielle Smith. This milestone, announced in early April, has driven trader consensus to a 74.5% implied probability for yes, amid ongoing signature verification and an imminent First Nations injunction hearing on April 7. Smith's government is already holding a referendum that day on nine related questions challenging federal overreach in immigration, courts, and the Senate, amplifying secessionist momentum despite low public support for separation around 30% in recent polls. Legal or procedural blocks could prompt alternative paths under the Referendum Act.",
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