
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ticker
will-china-invade-taiwan-by-march-31-2026
Volume
2.7M
24h volume
36.4K
1w volume
386.5K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
90.8K
Liquidity CLOB
90.8K
Start
Nov 24, 2025
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 24, 2025
Event ID
89456
Slug
will-china-invade-taiwan-by-march-31-2026
Markets
1
{
"id": "89456",
"ticker": "will-china-invade-taiwan-by-march-31-2026",
"slug": "will-china-invade-taiwan-by-march-31-2026",
"title": "Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2025-11-24T17:52:39.235861Z",
"creationDate": "2025-11-24T17:52:39.235858Z",
"endDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 90809.6558,
"volume": 2741050.470435,
"openInterest": 0,
"createdAt": "2025-11-24T17:32:07.898978Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-22T08:02:20.804548Z",
"competitive": 0.8117922566789701,
"volume24hr": 36444.68823900001,
"volume1wk": 386479.82741499995,
"volume1mo": 1189228.014840001,
"volume1yr": 2726687.511541997,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 90809.6558,
"commentCount": 0,
"markets": [
{
"id": "701290",
"question": "Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?",
"conditionId": "0x2701e5a5b751418c5c5bf0faaafdea60ac9fc893eb75fd88e902cd97458d375b",
"slug": "will-china-invade-taiwan-by-march-31-2026",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "90809.6558",
"startDate": "2025-11-24T17:48:11.644324Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.0185\", \"0.9815\"]",
"volume": "2741050.470435",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2025-11-24T17:32:09.459989Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-22T08:00:43.974907Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0xaecdae26532cc3ff8db9ac402ba42cb7888c2e1bbc9b492482a3886218d77f32",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 2741050.470435,
"liquidityNum": 90809.6558,
"endDateIso": "2026-03-31",
"startDateIso": "2025-11-24",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 36444.68823900001,
"volume1wk": 386479.82741499995,
"volume1mo": 1189228.014840001,
"volume1yr": 2726687.511541997,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"106549993070946237758310281255754864390927967486677098278324584793561067743644\", \"45508526462946448093261964971924605068149154773851783510479883418527084296876\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 36444.68823900001,
"volume1wkClob": 386479.82741499995,
"volume1moClob": 1189228.014840001,
"volume1yrClob": 2726687.511541997,
"volumeClob": 2741050.470435,
"liquidityClob": 90809.6558,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-11-24T17:47:49Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.8117922566789701,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.001,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.0015,
"oneWeekPriceChange": 0.001,
"oneMonthPriceChange": -0.004,
"lastTradePrice": 0.018,
"bestBid": 0.018,
"bestAsk": 0.019,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2025-11-24T17:47:21.543322Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"series": [
{
"id": "10171",
"ticker": "china-invade-taiwan",
"slug": "china-invade-taiwan",
"title": "China invade Taiwan",
"seriesType": "single",
"recurrence": "monthly",
"image": "",
"icon": "",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"createdAt": "2025-07-24T22:44:22.501114Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-22T08:02:27.522291Z",
"volume24hr": 91059.59767300001,
"volume": 12539597.30531,
"liquidity": 730881.9314,
"commentCount": 483,
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "101794",
"label": "Foreign Policy",
"slug": "foreign-policy",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-02-06T17:24:29.604203Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:16:00.470453Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "100265",
"label": "Geopolitics",
"slug": "geopolitics",
"forceShow": true,
"createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:10:12.806715Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "102458",
"label": "Earn 4%",
"slug": "earn-4",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-08-01T13:31:11.928744Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:22:20.988268Z",
"isCarousel": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "303",
"label": "China",
"slug": "china",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:52:11.147+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:52:11.155Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:10:12.811975Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "101970",
"label": "World",
"slug": "world",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:04:41.800728Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "2",
"label": "Politics",
"slug": "politics",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
"updatedBy": 13,
"createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:24:21.058056Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": true,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"seriesSlug": "china-invade-taiwan",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"cumulativeMarkets": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
}