Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Ticker

will-china-invade-taiwan-by-march-31-2026

Volume

2.7M

24h volume

33.7K

1w volume

343.1K

Open interest

0

Liquidity

91.1K

Liquidity CLOB

91.1K

Start

Nov 24, 2025

End

Mar 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Nov 24, 2025

Event ID

89456

Slug

will-china-invade-taiwan-by-march-31-2026

Markets

1

Raw event data
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