
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-february-28
Volume
988.8K
24h volume
41.5K
1w volume
291.9K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
25.9K
Liquidity CLOB
25.9K
Start
Jan 20, 2026
End
Feb 28, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 20, 2026
Event ID
176990
Slug
will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-february-28
Markets
1
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