
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-february-28
Volume
1.1M
24h volume
30.4K
1w volume
264.9K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
34.4K
Liquidity CLOB
34.4K
Start
Jan 20, 2026
End
Feb 28, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 20, 2026
Event ID
176990
Slug
will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-february-28
Markets
1
Raw event data
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}- Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?Vol 1.1MLiq 34.4KEnd Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book