
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Ticker
1-megaton-meteor-strike-in-2026
Volume
91.6K
24h volume
316
1w volume
1.1K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
18.1K
Liquidity CLOB
18.1K
Start
Jan 2, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 2, 2026
Event ID
139270
Slug
1-megaton-meteor-strike-in-2026
Markets
1
Raw event data
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}- 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?Vol 91.6KLiq 17.0KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book