1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.

Ticker

1-megaton-meteor-strike-in-2026

Volume

91.6K

24h volume

316

1w volume

1.1K

Open interest

0

Liquidity

18.1K

Liquidity CLOB

18.1K

Start

Jan 2, 2026

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jan 2, 2026

Event ID

139270

Slug

1-megaton-meteor-strike-in-2026

Markets

1

Raw event data
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