AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a bill erecting a qualifying moratorium that prohibits or suspends approvals for new AI data center construction or major expansions anywhere in the United States is passed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying moratorium go into effect against the construction of any facility described in the legal text as an AI data center, AI compute facility, AI training/inference data center, or similar. Any moratorium that applies to all “data centers” will also qualify. The signing of such a bill will qualify regardless of the date such a moratorium actually comes into effect, or whether an injunction is put into place against qualifying legislation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Ticker

ai-data-center-moratorium-passed-before-2027

Volume

9.7K

24h volume

1.9K

1w volume

2.2K

Open interest

0

Liquidity

3.6K

Liquidity CLOB

3.6K

Start

Dec 17, 2025

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Dec 17, 2025

Event ID

108522

Slug

ai-data-center-moratorium-passed-before-2027

Markets

1

Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus favors \"No\" at 65% implied probability for an AI data center moratorium passing before 2027, driven primarily by fierce tech industry lobbying and economic incentives that have repeatedly quashed legislative efforts amid surging AI demand. Recent developments, including Prince William County's temporary permit pause in Virginia earlier this year and failed moratorium bills in states like Georgia and Ohio, highlight localized pushback but underscore the improbability of broader federal or multi-state action, as data centers promise billions in tax revenue and jobs. With hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google accelerating builds—evidenced by $100B+ investments announced in 2024—environmental grid strain concerns from groups like the Sierra Club lack the political traction needed for passage before the deadline, especially post-election. Key catalyst: Q4 2024 FERC rulings prioritizing data center power access.",
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