Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Joao Fonseca
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market refers on the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Joao Fonseca in the Miami Open, scheduled for March 20 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Joao Fonseca. This market will resolve to 'Joao Fonseca' if Joao Fonseca advances against Carlos Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ticker
atp-alcaraz-fonseca-2026-03-20
Volume
533.4K
24h volume
529.7K
1w volume
533.4K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
1.7M
Liquidity CLOB
1.7M
Start
Mar 19, 2026
End
Mar 27, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 20, 2026
Resolution source
https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Event ID
287576
Slug
atp-alcaraz-fonseca-2026-03-20
Markets
10
Raw event data
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"title": "Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Joao Fonseca",
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"outcomes": "[\"Alcaraz\", \"Fonseca\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.9995\", \"0.0005\"]",
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"active": true,
"closed": false,
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"question": "Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Fonseca",
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"resolutionSource": "https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current",
"endDate": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "0",
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"description": "This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Joao Fonseca in the Miami Open, scheduled for March 20 2026.\nThis market will resolve to “Alcaraz” if Carlos Alcaraz wins the first set. It will resolve to “Fonseca” if Joao Fonseca wins the first set.\nIf the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50.\nIf the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50.\nResolution will be based on official ATP match statistics.",
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"resolutionSource": "https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current",
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"description": "This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Joao Fonseca in the Miami Open, scheduled for March 20 2026.\nThis market will resolve to \"Over\" if the total number of games completed across all sets equals or exceeds 22. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"Under.\"\nAll tiebreaks—including any Champions/Super tiebreak—count as one (1) game toward the total.\nIf the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50.\nResolution will be based on official ATP statistics.",
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"context_description": "Carlos Alcaraz's world No. 2 ranking and strong hard-court pedigree heavily anchor his 86% implied probability against qualifier Joao Fonseca in the Miami Open, reflecting trader consensus on the vast experience gap. Alcaraz enters with solid recent form, advancing to the Indian Wells quarterfinals before a tight loss to Tommy Paul, showing no injury concerns after shaking off an earlier ankle issue. The 17-year-old Brazilian Fonseca, ranked around No. 550, earned his spot as a lucky loser with gritty qualifying wins but faces his toughest test yet in a first-ever matchup. While upsets occur against seeded stars on Miami's demanding courts, Alcaraz's baseline power and movement give him clear edges in rallies and return games.",
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}- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs FonsecaVol 2.6KLiq 0End Mar 27, 2026Closed
- Alcaraz vs. Fonseca: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Vol 86Liq 0End Mar 27, 2026Closed
- Alcaraz vs. Fonseca: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Vol 74Liq 0End Mar 27, 2026Closed
- Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Joao FonsecaVol 496.1KLiq 653.0KEnd Mar 27, 2026OpenOrder book
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5)Vol 14.2KLiq 228.6KEnd Mar 27, 2026OpenOrder book
- Alcaraz vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 21.5Vol 17.4KLiq 217.6KEnd Mar 27, 2026OpenOrder book
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 2.5Vol 1.5KLiq 218.6KEnd Mar 27, 2026OpenOrder book
- Alcaraz vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 23.5Vol 291Liq 213.5KEnd Mar 27, 2026OpenOrder book
- Alcaraz vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 22.5Vol 196Liq 213.5KEnd Mar 27, 2026OpenOrder book
- Alcaraz vs. Fonseca: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Vol 941Liq 0End Mar 27, 2026Closed