Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86% implied probability of a Bank of England rate hike sometime in 2026, primarily driven by persistent services inflation and sticky wage growth that have tempered expectations for deep rate cuts. Recent UK CPI data showed headline inflation at 1.7% in September 2024, but services inflation remains elevated above 5%, prompting a divided MPC to hold the base rate at 5% in September while signaling only gradual easing. Forward projections from the BoE and market swaps anticipate cuts to around 3.5% by late 2025, but traders are wagering on a rebound amid Labour's expansionary fiscal plans and global risks like U.S. tariffs, positioning 2026 as a pivotal year for potential retightening if inflation reaccelerates. Key catalysts include November 7 MPC meeting and October CPI release.",
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    "context_updated_at": "2026-03-23T14:33:47.339Z"
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