
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 15?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ticker
chatgpt-full-outage-by-march-15
Volume
9.2K
24h volume
892
1w volume
7.2K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
1.2K
Liquidity CLOB
1.2K
Start
Mar 3, 2026
End
Mar 15, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 3, 2026
Event ID
244469
Slug
chatgpt-full-outage-by-march-15
Markets
1
Raw event data
{
"id": "244469",
"ticker": "chatgpt-full-outage-by-march-15",
"slug": "chatgpt-full-outage-by-march-15",
"title": "ChatGPT Full Outage by March 15?",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nAn incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.\n\nRevisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2026-03-03T23:07:33.653794Z",
"creationDate": "2026-03-03T23:07:33.653788Z",
"endDate": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/chatgpt-outage-by-F7WtDYLOvwrm.png",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/chatgpt-outage-by-F7WtDYLOvwrm.png",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 1210.6886,
"volume": 9212.762336999995,
"openInterest": 0,
"createdAt": "2026-03-03T22:02:56.878904Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-15T20:19:33.057238Z",
"competitive": 0.8114749043271088,
"volume24hr": 892.339453,
"volume1wk": 7179.149301000001,
"volume1mo": 9212.762337,
"volume1yr": 9212.762337,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 1210.6886,
"commentCount": 0,
"markets": [
{
"id": "1495110",
"question": "ChatGPT Full Outage by March 15?",
"conditionId": "0x2c32c9401b0fe6cc2a55878dfafcc8dbd4242fe521baf32229e5d00bb52d6905",
"slug": "chatgpt-full-outage-by-march-15",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "1210.6886",
"startDate": "2026-03-03T23:06:38.538613Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/chatgpt-outage-by-F7WtDYLOvwrm.png",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/chatgpt-outage-by-F7WtDYLOvwrm.png",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nAn incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.\n\nRevisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.018\", \"0.982\"]",
"volume": "9212.762336999995",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-03-03T22:02:59.162847Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-15T20:19:00.923341Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0xbeedb774f698a444ff00fb19ffac9cc57482970d98f9a6f055b059b23dfcc2c6",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 9212.762336999995,
"liquidityNum": 1210.6886,
"endDateIso": "2026-03-15",
"startDateIso": "2026-03-03",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 892.339453,
"volume1wk": 7179.149301000001,
"volume1mo": 9212.762337,
"volume1yr": 9212.762337,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"74774301051751066433690438173656311859913236849260561744484910452800853407571\", \"92675793270321273101532498608669259888930778223685189397750253848470237055019\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 892.339453,
"volume1wkClob": 7179.149301000001,
"volume1moClob": 9212.762337,
"volume1yrClob": 9212.762337,
"volumeClob": 9212.762336999995,
"liquidityClob": 1210.6886,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-03T23:05:33Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.8114749043271088,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"rewardsMinSize": 50,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.012,
"lastTradePrice": 0.01,
"bestBid": 0.012,
"bestAsk": 0.024,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-03T23:04:20.264684Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"series": [
{
"id": "11208",
"ticker": "chatgpt-full-outage",
"slug": "chatgpt-full-outage",
"title": "ChatGPT Full Outage",
"seriesType": "single",
"recurrence": "monthly",
"image": "",
"icon": "",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"createdAt": "2026-02-17T14:01:47.738791Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-15T20:19:39.097013Z",
"volume24hr": 892.339453,
"volume": 9212.762336999995,
"liquidity": 1210.6886,
"commentCount": 2,
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "439",
"label": "AI",
"slug": "ai",
"forceShow": true,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 23:08:32.469+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T23:08:32.49Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:34:38.747836Z",
"isCarousel": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "101999",
"label": "Big Tech",
"slug": "big-tech",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-03-26T21:46:09.386953Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:34:38.73488Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "1401",
"label": "Tech",
"slug": "tech",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2024-02-21 23:06:12.305+00",
"createdAt": "2024-02-21T23:06:12.324Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:20:01.532137Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "285",
"label": "sam altman",
"slug": "sam-altman",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:48:43.94+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:48:43.95Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:06.739431Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "473",
"label": "gpt",
"slug": "gpt",
"publishedAt": "2023-11-07 16:08:25.58+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-07T16:08:25.773Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:22:42.119069Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "537",
"label": "OpenAI",
"slug": "openai",
"publishedAt": "2023-11-17 23:46:12.865+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-17T23:46:12.878Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:26:42.774906Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "1563",
"label": "outage",
"slug": "outage",
"publishedAt": "2024-03-05 16:50:43.894+00",
"createdAt": "2024-03-05T16:50:44.058Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:18:21.307214Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": true,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"seriesSlug": "chatgpt-full-outage",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
}- ChatGPT Full Outage by March 15?Vol 9.2KLiq 1.2KEnd Mar 15, 2026OpenOrder book