
ChatGPT Outage by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ticker
chatgpt-outage-by-march-20
Volume
11.9K
24h volume
4.0K
1w volume
11.9K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
5.8K
Liquidity CLOB
5.8K
Start
Mar 18, 2026
End
Mar 20, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 18, 2026
Event ID
281209
Slug
chatgpt-outage-by-march-20
Markets
2
Raw event data
{
"id": "281209",
"ticker": "chatgpt-outage-by-march-20",
"slug": "chatgpt-outage-by-march-20",
"title": "ChatGPT Outage by...?",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nAn incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.\n\nRevisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2026-03-18T00:16:22.614828Z",
"creationDate": "2026-03-18T00:16:22.614823Z",
"endDate": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/chatgpt-outage-by-F7WtDYLOvwrm.png",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/chatgpt-outage-by-F7WtDYLOvwrm.png",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 5786.86598,
"volume": 11898.139271999997,
"openInterest": 0,
"createdAt": "2026-03-17T23:56:10.129008Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-21T06:38:36.299301Z",
"competitive": 0.9919650828290844,
"volume24hr": 4004.6568270000002,
"volume1wk": 11898.139271999995,
"volume1mo": 11898.139271999995,
"volume1yr": 11898.139271999995,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 5786.86598,
"negRisk": false,
"commentCount": 0,
"markets": [
{
"id": "1640158",
"question": "ChatGPT Outage by March 27?",
"conditionId": "0x16d2088f78bdd3142237c5b04c5d00d0fea824e4cfaffeae738a119a8853bbd7",
"slug": "chatgpt-outage-by-march-27",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "1639.2033",
"startDate": "2026-03-18T15:25:52.869705Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/chatgpt-outage-by-F7WtDYLOvwrm.png",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/chatgpt-outage-by-F7WtDYLOvwrm.png",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nAn incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.\n\nRevisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.41\", \"0.59\"]",
"volume": "1753.3345299999999",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-03-18T15:21:53.902124Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-21T06:37:59.165912Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "March 27",
"groupItemThreshold": "1",
"questionID": "0x0249b53352b4aabe6dd5d1dd9ad243049d1be15f86ebd0c2d625f447397c09ad",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 1753.3345299999999,
"liquidityNum": 1639.2033,
"endDateIso": "2026-03-20",
"startDateIso": "2026-03-18",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 566.418463,
"volume1wk": 1753.33453,
"volume1mo": 1753.33453,
"volume1yr": 1753.33453,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"48449312131546877247187234959679106534242945267216748078909628995694480564490\", \"97850007758223574868568529075967061610889192349808444879522329033497526518392\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 566.418463,
"volume1wkClob": 1753.33453,
"volume1moClob": 1753.33453,
"volume1yrClob": 1753.33453,
"volumeClob": 1753.3345299999999,
"liquidityClob": 1639.2033,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-18T15:24:47Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.9919650828290844,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "106628",
"conditionId": "0x16d2088f78bdd3142237c5b04c5d00d0fea824e4cfaffeae738a119a8853bbd7",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 15,
"startDate": "2026-03-19",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 50,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.02,
"lastTradePrice": 0.41,
"bestBid": 0.4,
"bestAsk": 0.42,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-18T15:23:33.326642Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1633802",
"question": "ChatGPT Outage by March 20?",
"conditionId": "0x1e8cb51e4844cdbeec964e918d43d5223972775e73f3c85d8a7b08e1dccf99e3",
"slug": "chatgpt-outage-by-march-20",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "4147.66268",
"startDate": "2026-03-18T00:15:58.8Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/chatgpt-outage-by-F7WtDYLOvwrm.png",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/chatgpt-outage-by-F7WtDYLOvwrm.png",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nAn incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.\n\nRevisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.0005\", \"0.9995\"]",
"volume": "10144.804741999997",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-03-17T23:56:11.426076Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-21T06:37:43.57094Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "March 20",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0x95d8021bd943309c08c7ef2ce8f8e80f8dc462068076bb2328730df1c46849d7",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"umaResolutionStatus": "proposed",
"volumeNum": 10144.804741999997,
"liquidityNum": 4147.66268,
"endDateIso": "2026-03-20",
"startDateIso": "2026-03-18",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 3438.2383640000003,
"volume1wk": 10144.804741999995,
"volume1mo": 10144.804741999995,
"volume1yr": 10144.804741999995,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"84698385714979836236075286482962065965433631107996168072818776329163252544773\", \"300386845144464296579670631678075336754230750116462411663958003942875331386\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 3438.2383640000003,
"volume1wkClob": 10144.804741999995,
"volume1moClob": 10144.804741999995,
"volume1yrClob": 10144.804741999995,
"volumeClob": 10144.804741999997,
"liquidityClob": 4147.66268,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-18T00:14:53Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.8003199679231757,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"rewardsMinSize": 100,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.001,
"lastTradePrice": 0.01,
"bestAsk": 0.001,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-18T00:13:41.717158Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"series": [
{
"id": "11209",
"ticker": "chatgpt-outage",
"slug": "chatgpt-outage",
"title": "ChatGPT Outage",
"seriesType": "single",
"recurrence": "monthly",
"image": "",
"icon": "",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"createdAt": "2026-02-17T14:04:12.823669Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-21T06:38:53.22306Z",
"volume24hr": 4004.6568270000002,
"volume": 11898.139271999997,
"liquidity": 5786.86598,
"commentCount": 39,
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "101644",
"label": "chatgpt",
"slug": "chatgpt",
"createdAt": "2025-01-06T23:19:06.881021Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:02.461814Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "1563",
"label": "outage",
"slug": "outage",
"publishedAt": "2024-03-05 16:50:43.894+00",
"createdAt": "2024-03-05T16:50:44.058Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:18:21.307214Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "439",
"label": "AI",
"slug": "ai",
"forceShow": true,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 23:08:32.469+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T23:08:32.49Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:34:38.747836Z",
"isCarousel": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "1401",
"label": "Tech",
"slug": "tech",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2024-02-21 23:06:12.305+00",
"createdAt": "2024-02-21T23:06:12.324Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:20:01.532137Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "473",
"label": "gpt",
"slug": "gpt",
"publishedAt": "2023-11-07 16:08:25.58+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-07T16:08:25.773Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:22:42.119069Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "537",
"label": "OpenAI",
"slug": "openai",
"publishedAt": "2023-11-17 23:46:12.865+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-17T23:46:12.878Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:26:42.774906Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "101999",
"label": "Big Tech",
"slug": "big-tech",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-03-26T21:46:09.386953Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:34:38.73488Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": true,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"seriesSlug": "chatgpt-outage",
"gmpChartMode": "default",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"estimateValue": false,
"cumulativeMarkets": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Recent OpenAI infrastructure upgrades, including expanded Azure capacity announced in Q3 2024, have bolstered ChatGPT's reliability, driving trader consensus toward low implied probabilities of a major outage by year-end on Polymarket. Historical patterns show disruptions often tie to peak usage during model rollouts or viral trends, as seen in the June 2024 downtime affecting millions. Competitive pressures from stable rivals like Anthropic's Claude intensify scrutiny, but no confirmed scaling vulnerabilities have surfaced. Watch OpenAI's December DevDay for potential strain from new features; resolution hinges on Downdetector verification of widespread unavailability exceeding four hours. Odds discount repeat issues amid proactive monitoring.",
"context_requires_regen": false,
"context_updated_at": "2026-03-21T06:32:39.121Z"
}
}- ChatGPT Outage by March 27?Vol 1.8KLiq 1.6KEnd Mar 20, 2026OpenOrder book
- ChatGPT Outage by March 20?Vol 10.1KLiq 4.1KEnd Mar 20, 2026OpenOrder book