
Conservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC. Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used. Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published. This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability. Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Ticker
conservatives-flip-liberals-for-canada-seats-polls-in-2026
Volume
972
24h volume
972
1w volume
972
Open interest
703
Liquidity
6.5K
Liquidity CLOB
6.5K
Start
Mar 25, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 25, 2026
Event ID
306997
Slug
conservatives-flip-liberals-for-canada-seats-polls-in-2026
Markets
1
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Traders price a 76.5% chance that Conservatives will not surpass Liberals in average seat projections from major Canadian polls during 2026, despite current double-digit national leads for CPC leader Pierre Poilievre amid housing affordability woes and inflation concerns. Chrystia Freeland's November 25 resignation as finance minister exposed Liberal infighting over fiscal strategy against potential U.S. tariffs post-Trump victory, widening the gap to 20+ points in recent Nanos and Angus Reid surveys projecting CPC majorities under first-past-the-post rules. Yet, consensus reflects historical volatility—opposition surges faded in 2015—combined with Liberal incumbency in the minority government, potential Trudeau leadership transition, NDP supply-and-confidence dynamics, and 2025 snap election risks that could reset polling cycles before 2026.",
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}- Conservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?Vol 972Liq 6.5KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book