Cuban regime falls in 2026?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus favors the Cuban regime's survival through 2026 at 60% implied probability on \"No,\" driven by its historical resilience despite severe economic contraction, chronic blackouts, and food shortages. Recent nationwide power outages in October 2024 sparked small-scale protests in Santiago and other cities, but security forces swiftly suppressed them, echoing the 2021 crackdown with hundreds arrested and no sustained opposition momentum. Official statements from President Díaz-Canel emphasize energy reforms and alliances with Russia and China for aid, offsetting U.S. sanctions. Absent unified dissent or external shocks, markets price low odds of collapse, with migration exodus further easing internal pressures ahead of 2026 communist party congress.",
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