
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory by March 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control. Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of October 31, 2025. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
hezbollah-strike-on-israel-by-march-7
Volume
354.6K
24h volume
217.7K
1w volume
220.2K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
—
Start
Feb 28, 2026
End
Mar 7, 2026
Status
Closed
Access
Restricted
Created
Feb 28, 2026
Event ID
237064
Slug
hezbollah-strike-on-israel-by-march-7
Markets
1
Raw event data
{
"id": "237064",
"ticker": "hezbollah-strike-on-israel-by-march-7",
"slug": "hezbollah-strike-on-israel-by-march-7",
"title": "Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7?",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory by March 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.\n\nIsraeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of October 31, 2025. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2026-02-28T16:09:39.245327Z",
"creationDate": "2026-02-28T16:09:39.245322Z",
"endDate": "2026-03-07T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/hezbollah-strike-on-israel-by-5jRAP2IgX8zI.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/hezbollah-strike-on-israel-by-5jRAP2IgX8zI.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": true,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"volume": 354577.977469,
"openInterest": 0,
"createdAt": "2026-02-28T16:04:24.0175Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-02T03:39:34.220974Z",
"volume24hr": 217723.67593299993,
"volume1wk": 220197.8338299999,
"volume1mo": 220197.8338299999,
"volume1yr": 220197.8338299999,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"commentCount": 0,
"markets": [
{
"id": "1466909",
"question": "Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7?",
"conditionId": "0xcd3156c9537be4494f31d2303c28a3eee9b685969d6fbfdbfea93de01b896085",
"slug": "hezbollah-strike-on-israel-by-march-7",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-03-07T00:00:00Z",
"startDate": "2026-02-28T16:07:29.014586Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/hezbollah-strike-on-israel-by-5jRAP2IgX8zI.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/hezbollah-strike-on-israel-by-5jRAP2IgX8zI.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory by March 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.\n\nIsraeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of October 31, 2025. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"1\", \"0\"]",
"volume": "354577.977469",
"active": true,
"closed": true,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-02-28T16:04:25.578026Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-02T03:39:21.74446Z",
"closedTime": "2026-03-02 03:15:39+00",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0x83b853fa40f80564ee7615698289782ae79d37d0f13a413766d3b47d68aeee7e",
"umaEndDate": "2026-03-02T03:15:39Z",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
"volumeNum": 354577.977469,
"endDateIso": "2026-03-07",
"startDateIso": "2026-02-28",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 217723.67593299993,
"volume1wk": 220197.8338299999,
"volume1mo": 220197.8338299999,
"volume1yr": 220197.8338299999,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"111610404168127219270469467970855088165685010907307338662923826114211784370680\", \"17765266944485423196309024923458569832793141304012596447159136980718339667917\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 217723.67593299993,
"volume1wkClob": 220197.8338299999,
"volume1moClob": 220197.8338299999,
"volume1yrClob": 220197.8338299999,
"volumeClob": 354577.977469,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": false,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-02-28T16:06:23Z",
"cyom": false,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"rewardsMinSize": 200,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.001,
"automaticallyResolved": true,
"lastTradePrice": 0.999,
"bestBid": 0.999,
"bestAsk": 1,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-02-28T16:04:45.413748Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"series": [
{
"id": "10647",
"ticker": "hezbollah-x-israel-strike",
"slug": "hezbollah-x-israel-strike",
"title": "Hezbollah x Israel Strike",
"seriesType": "single",
"recurrence": "annual",
"image": "",
"icon": "",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"createdAt": "2025-11-11T22:32:11.726511Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-02T03:39:37.197485Z",
"volume24hr": 426701.3298769999,
"volume": 504485.485406,
"liquidity": 35447.9185,
"commentCount": 131,
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "101970",
"label": "World",
"slug": "world",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:04:41.800728Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "180",
"label": "Israel",
"slug": "israel",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:31:07.39+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:31:07.395Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:07:32.350064Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "2",
"label": "Politics",
"slug": "politics",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
"updatedBy": 13,
"createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:24:21.058056Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "849",
"label": "Lebanon",
"slug": "lebanon",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2024-01-09 20:34:03.181+00",
"createdAt": "2024-01-09T20:34:03.207Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:05:01.863019Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "114",
"label": "Syria",
"slug": "syria",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:21:16.389+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:21:16.392Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:23:51.163746Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "154",
"label": "Middle East",
"slug": "middle-east",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:26:20.585+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:26:20.601Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:13:00.1776Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "100265",
"label": "Geopolitics",
"slug": "geopolitics",
"forceShow": true,
"createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:10:12.806715Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"closedTime": "2026-03-02T03:15:39Z",
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": true,
"automaticallyResolved": true,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"seriesSlug": "hezbollah-x-israel-strike",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
}- Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7?Vol 354.6KLiq —End Mar 7, 2026Closed