Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

houthis-successfully-target-shipping-by-march-31

Volume

10.1K

24h volume

1.8K

1w volume

10.1K

Open interest

0

Liquidity

6.5K

Liquidity CLOB

6.5K

Start

Mar 17, 2026

End

Mar 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 17, 2026

Event ID

280783

Slug

houthis-successfully-target-shipping-by-march-31

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "title": "Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?",
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    {
      "id": "103208",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Polymarket's 77% implied probability for \"No\" on Houthis successfully targeting shipping by March 31 stems from sustained US-UK coalition airstrikes that have degraded Houthi capabilities, destroying over 30 missile launchers and storage sites since January per Pentagon assessments. Interception rates of Houthi drones and missiles now exceed 95%, curtailing effective strikes amid no confirmed commercial vessel hits in recent weeks despite sporadic claims. With the deadline imminent, trader consensus weighs heavily on reduced operational tempo and shipping reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope, stabilizing Red Sea freight premiums while anchoring odds against success.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-03-21T22:02:53.702Z"
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