Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Leadership Change" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran. This market will resolve to “Ceasefire” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran. If neither occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. An “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another. If the agreement is officially reached before Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran, this will qualify, regardless of when the ceasefire officially takes effect. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

iran-leadership-change-or-us-x-iran-ceasefire-first

Volume

9.4K

24h volume

975

1w volume

9.4K

Open interest

0

Liquidity

7.6K

Liquidity CLOB

7.6K

Start

Mar 13, 2026

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 13, 2026

Event ID

265815

Slug

iran-leadership-change-or-us-x-iran-ceasefire-first

Markets

1

Tags

Diplomacy & CeasefireKhamenei outIran RegimeGeopoliticsTrumpU.S. x IranIran
Raw event data
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  "title": "Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Leadership Change\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran. \n\nThis market will resolve to “Ceasefire” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran.\n\nIf neither occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.\n\nAn “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran, this will qualify, regardless of when the ceasefire officially takes effect.\n\nAny form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nA broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "id": "104010",
      "label": "Diplomacy & Ceasefire",
      "slug": "diplomacy-ceasefire",
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      "createdAt": "2026-03-02T19:58:33.637952Z",
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors an Iran leadership change at 53.5% over a US-Iran ceasefire first, reflecting Supreme Leader Khamenei's age of 85 and recurring unverified health concerns against the backdrop of limited Israeli strikes on Iran in late October 2024, which de-escalated without broader US involvement or formal truce. The competitive balance stems from no confirmed Khamenei succession signals—succession remains opaque and council-controlled—juxtaposed with indirect US-Iran diplomacy via Oman amid proxy conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen. Verified reports of Khamenei's illness could surge leadership odds; diplomatic breakthroughs under the incoming Trump administration, such as Houthi Red Sea de-escalation talks, might tip toward ceasefire.",
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    "context_updated_at": "2026-03-17T16:16:38.285Z"
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