Iran strike on US military by February 28?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a military strike against the U.S. military, inclusive of all U.S. military ships, planes, bases and other infrastructure, between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iranian missile, drone, or other strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. Strikes on U.S. military unmanned aerial vehicles/projectiles and U.S. commercial/civilian ships will NOT count toward a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on the U.S. military by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the U.S. and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible may also be used.

Ticker

iran-strike-on-us-military-by-february-28

Volume

678.6K

24h volume

452.6K

1w volume

516.9K

Open interest

0

Liquidity

13.8K

Liquidity CLOB

13.8K

Start

Jan 19, 2026

End

Feb 28, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jan 19, 2026

Event ID

168315

Slug

iran-strike-on-us-military-by-february-28

Markets

1

Raw event data
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