
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
israel-strikes-iran-by-june-30-2026
Volume
604.6K
24h volume
7.2K
1w volume
140.9K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
50.5K
Liquidity CLOB
50.5K
Start
Dec 2, 2025
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Dec 2, 2025
Event ID
95353
Slug
israel-strikes-iran-by-june-30-2026
Markets
1
Raw event data
{
"id": "95353",
"ticker": "israel-strikes-iran-by-june-30-2026",
"slug": "israel-strikes-iran-by-june-30-2026",
"title": "Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2025-12-02T00:47:39.31736Z",
"creationDate": "2025-12-02T00:47:39.317357Z",
"endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-military-response-against-iran-in-november-vlOJoXKuHEkm.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-military-response-against-iran-in-november-vlOJoXKuHEkm.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 50512.9583,
"volume": 604580.784083,
"openInterest": 0,
"createdAt": "2025-12-02T00:32:19.365304Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-22T09:09:47.781716Z",
"competitive": 0.9794079478954972,
"volume24hr": 7213.807350999998,
"volume1wk": 140941.76844300004,
"volume1mo": 328253.6668709993,
"volume1yr": 604562.2400690021,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 50512.9583,
"commentCount": 0,
"markets": [
{
"id": "791703",
"question": "Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?",
"conditionId": "0x82612bedb300adea234498cdb4754c3bd66d8f128ee51c760d4b3d7417ac11a5",
"slug": "israel-strikes-iran-by-june-30-2026",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "50512.9583",
"startDate": "2025-12-02T00:37:09.658901Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-military-response-against-iran-in-november-vlOJoXKuHEkm.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-military-response-against-iran-in-november-vlOJoXKuHEkm.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.645\", \"0.355\"]",
"volume": "604580.784083",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2025-12-02T00:32:21.008775Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-22T09:09:05.289568Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0x4c752d602bae810dd16a7d369eabe4588cd489507e73e4473f67d0cd4bea8bea",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 604580.784083,
"liquidityNum": 50512.9583,
"endDateIso": "2026-06-30",
"startDateIso": "2025-12-02",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 7213.807350999998,
"volume1wk": 140941.76844300004,
"volume1mo": 328253.6668709993,
"volume1yr": 604562.2400690021,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"48190644041867646231629134333999240865705940265073652713281296697869023790191\", \"63369941481876265079669200084080935839244983653494876131040874623657755022508\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 7213.807350999998,
"volume1wkClob": 140941.76844300004,
"volume1moClob": 328253.6668709993,
"volume1yrClob": 604562.2400690021,
"volumeClob": 604580.784083,
"liquidityClob": 50512.9583,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-12-02T00:36:48Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.9794079478954972,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "46746",
"conditionId": "0x82612bedb300adea234498cdb4754c3bd66d8f128ee51c760d4b3d7417ac11a5",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 5,
"startDate": "2025-12-02",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.01,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.005,
"oneWeekPriceChange": 0.17,
"oneMonthPriceChange": 0.055,
"lastTradePrice": 0.65,
"bestBid": 0.64,
"bestAsk": 0.65,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2025-12-02T00:36:19.504928Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"series": [
{
"id": "10108",
"ticker": "israel-strike-iran",
"slug": "israel-strike-iran",
"title": "Israel strike iran",
"seriesType": "single",
"recurrence": "monthly",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-issue-an-executive-order-on-february-14-IRIODX3MAqwP.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump-negative-approval-before-march-1qIERzlB6HpB.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"createdAt": "2025-05-21T01:57:08.443692Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-22T09:07:42.252499Z",
"volume24hr": 113079.90800699999,
"volume": 5019481.147881,
"liquidity": 223171.9873,
"commentCount": 3938,
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "180",
"label": "Israel",
"slug": "israel",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:31:07.39+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:31:07.395Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:07:32.350064Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "101970",
"label": "World",
"slug": "world",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:04:41.800728Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "100265",
"label": "Geopolitics",
"slug": "geopolitics",
"forceShow": true,
"createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:10:12.806715Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "154",
"label": "Middle East",
"slug": "middle-east",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:26:20.585+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:26:20.601Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:13:00.1776Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "286",
"label": "Celebrities",
"slug": "celebrities",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:48:48.368+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:48:48.383Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:02:01.212625Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "78",
"label": "Iran",
"slug": "iran",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:13:00.176417Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "61",
"label": "Gaza",
"slug": "gaza",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:15:21.229+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:15:21.233Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:14:50.344309Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "2",
"label": "Politics",
"slug": "politics",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
"updatedBy": 13,
"createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:24:21.058056Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "103074",
"label": "israel strike iran",
"slug": "israel-strike-iran",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2026-01-07T03:36:55.007035Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:18:10.749121Z",
"isCarousel": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": true,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"seriesSlug": "israel-strike-iran",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"cumulativeMarkets": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
}- Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Vol 604.6KLiq 50.5KEnd Jun 30, 2026OpenOrder book