Will JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat quarterly earnings?

{
  "id": "326947",
  "ticker": "jpm-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-04-14-2026-5pt43",
  "slug": "jpm-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-04-14-2026-5pt43",
  "title": "Will JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat quarterly earnings?",
  "description": "As of market creation, JPMorgan Chase is estimated to release earnings on April 14, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for JPMorgan Chase's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $5.43 as of market creation. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if JPMorgan Chase reports GAAP EPS greater than $5.43 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No.\" The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. \n\nIf JPMorgan Chase releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” \n\nNote: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).\nNote: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. \nNote: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.\nNote: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.\nNote: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.\nNote: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.\nNote: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.\n",
  "resolutionSource": "https://seekingalpha.com/",
  "startDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:02.760663Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:02.760659Z",
  "endDate": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/jpm-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-04-14-2026-5pt43-lI2njEQKeMgL.png",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/jpm-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-04-14-2026-5pt43-lI2njEQKeMgL.png",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 1890.8111,
  "volume": 955.1797150000002,
  "openInterest": 779.419715,
  "sortBy": "ascending",
  "createdAt": "2026-03-30T23:53:42.755319Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-05T14:11:21.911297Z",
  "competitive": 0.8709094471902284,
  "volume24hr": 26.084924,
  "volume1wk": 955.1797150000001,
  "volume1mo": 955.1797150000001,
  "volume1yr": 955.1797150000001,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 1890.8111,
  "negRisk": false,
  "commentCount": 0,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "1798061",
      "question": "Will JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat quarterly earnings?",
      "conditionId": "0x91a9c860963f2abfb7bbef38737c9afb9bb921f0222947dd83ecb00dc2614976",
      "slug": "jpm-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-04-14-2026-5pt43",
      "resolutionSource": "https://seekingalpha.com/",
      "endDate": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "1890.8111",
      "startDate": "2026-03-30T23:57:14.721303Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/jpm-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-04-14-2026-5pt43-lI2njEQKeMgL.png",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/jpm-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-04-14-2026-5pt43-lI2njEQKeMgL.png",
      "description": "As of market creation, JPMorgan Chase is estimated to release earnings on April 14, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for JPMorgan Chase's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $5.43 as of market creation. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if JPMorgan Chase reports GAAP EPS greater than $5.43 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No.\" The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. \n\nIf JPMorgan Chase releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” \n\nNote: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).\nNote: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. \nNote: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.\nNote: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.\nNote: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.\nNote: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.\nNote: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.\n",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.885\", \"0.115\"]",
      "volume": "955.1797150000002",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-30T23:53:43.305501Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-05T14:13:02.031952Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0xb07b3b94d71b29eccbfffaff8f5caa71eb63e70423ff134a8daf491faedb6095",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 955.1797150000002,
      "liquidityNum": 1890.8111,
      "endDateIso": "2026-04-14",
      "startDateIso": "2026-03-30",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 26.084924,
      "volume1wk": 955.1797150000001,
      "volume1mo": 955.1797150000001,
      "volume1yr": 955.1797150000001,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"68341630357272423188038075053414406855949886074497147748502729435039800933608\", \"20406900603593040514963078565299611695733397442818588072214311128025661449059\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 26.084924,
      "volume1wkClob": 955.1797150000001,
      "volume1moClob": 955.1797150000001,
      "volume1yrClob": 955.1797150000001,
      "volumeClob": 955.1797150000002,
      "liquidityClob": 1890.8111,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-30T23:56:09Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8709094471902284,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "rewardsMinSize": 50,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.01,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.89,
      "bestBid": 0.88,
      "bestAsk": 0.89,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-30T23:54:55.198995Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "eventStartTime": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "102169",
      "label": "Hide From New",
      "slug": "hide-from-new",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-05-23T18:47:07.430147Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:32:58.476595Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "120",
      "label": "Finance",
      "slug": "finance",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:22:21.615+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:22:21.62Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:30:44.068593Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "103578",
      "label": "JPM",
      "slug": "jpm",
      "createdAt": "2026-02-03T16:58:02.425307Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:44.103577Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "1013",
      "label": "Earnings",
      "slug": "earnings",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2024-02-06 19:27:48.024+00",
      "createdAt": "2024-02-06T19:27:48.029Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:34:18.642885Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "102676",
      "label": "Equities",
      "slug": "equities",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-10-14T20:02:08.297777Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:26:22.792759Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "startTime": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88.5% implied probability that JPMorgan Chase (JPM) will beat Q1 2026 earnings consensus, reflecting the bank's consistent history of positive surprises—including a 6.3% EPS beat in Q4 2025 ($5.23 vs. $4.93 expected)—and a current Zacks Earnings ESP of +2.34% signaling recent upward revisions in analyst estimates around $5.38 per share. Key drivers include JPM's February guidance for robust Q1 growth in investment banking fees and markets revenue, alongside stabilizing net interest income (NII) near $104.5 billion for full-year 2026 amid resilient loan growth and a Goldilocks economic backdrop. With the earnings release set for April 14, traders anticipate strength in trading volumes and dealmaking, though credit normalization in consumer portfolios poses a minor risk to the strong beat outlook.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-05T08:15:08.421Z"
  }
}