Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?

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    "context_description": "Recent bipartisan Senate legislation, including the Schiff-Curtis Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act introduced six days ago and a broader Merkley-Raskin bill three days ago, seeks to prohibit CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket from offering sports event contracts resembling bets. Despite this flurry of introductions amid concerns over gambling and manipulation, traders assign an 84% implied probability to no enactment in 2026, reflecting the bills' early procedural stage with no committee hearings or floor votes scheduled, Congress's track record of low passage rates for niche regulatory measures, and the CFTC's ongoing guidance and rulemaking favoring oversight over outright bans. Platforms' proactive anti-insider trading rules further dampen urgency for federal action before year-end.",
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