
Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ticker
luigi-mangione-out-of-custody-before-2027
Volume
10.0K
24h volume
4.6K
1w volume
5.0K
Open interest
2.8K
Liquidity
20.6K
Liquidity CLOB
20.6K
Start
Jan 29, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 29, 2026
Event ID
192867
Slug
luigi-mangione-out-of-custody-before-2027
Markets
1
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Luigi Mangione remaining in custody through 2026, with \"No\" at a resounding 94.5% implied probability, driven by recent court rulings delaying his New York state murder trial to September 8 and federal stalking-murder case potentially into January 2027. These postponements, announced just days ago amid defense preparation conflicts, underscore the case's complexity and Mangione's ongoing pretrial detention without bail since his December 2024 arrest for the UnitedHealthcare CEO killing—a high-profile saga blending anti-corporate rage and viral cult status online. No credible release paths have emerged, as judges cite flight risk and public safety for denying bail, aligning with historical precedents in terrorism-adjacent murders. Realistic upsets could include a surprise bail grant or charges dismissed on evidentiary grounds, though mounting prosecution evidence like the seized backpack manifesto diminishes those odds as trials loom.",
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}- Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?Vol 10.0KLiq 20.8KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book