Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601). For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point. If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Ticker

magnitude-6pt5-earthquake-in-la-before-2027

Volume

20

24h volume

17

1w volume

20

Open interest

20

Liquidity

374

Liquidity CLOB

374

Start

Apr 3, 2026

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Apr 3, 2026

Event ID

339789

Slug

magnitude-6pt5-earthquake-in-la-before-2027

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "ticker": "magnitude-6pt5-earthquake-in-la-before-2027",
  "slug": "magnitude-6pt5-earthquake-in-la-before-2027",
  "title": "Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).\n\nFor the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.\n\nIf an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-04-03T22:47:52.497411Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-04-03T22:47:52.497407Z",
  "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earthquake-7pt0-or-above-in-april-hkSHifLxxkCE.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earthquake-7pt0-or-above-in-april-hkSHifLxxkCE.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
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  "liquidity": 373.8023,
  "volume": 19.67923,
  "openInterest": 19.679229,
  "createdAt": "2026-04-03T14:38:49.776379Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-06T13:30:19.253739Z",
  "competitive": 0.47205028780617037,
  "volume24hr": 16.55357,
  "volume1wk": 19.67923,
  "volume1mo": 19.67923,
  "volume1yr": 19.67923,
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  "liquidityClob": 373.8023,
  "commentCount": 0,
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    {
      "id": "1845358",
      "question": "Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?",
      "conditionId": "0x2fe2f420a7de9c259d37f7f1606a0c81ad16b6d45afe4e1125db3941a3903a7a",
      "slug": "magnitude-6pt5-earthquake-in-la-before-2027",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "373.4367",
      "startDate": "2026-04-03T22:44:24.894154Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earthquake-7pt0-or-above-in-april-hkSHifLxxkCE.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earthquake-7pt0-or-above-in-april-hkSHifLxxkCE.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).\n\nFor the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.\n\nIf an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.305\", \"0.695\"]",
      "volume": "19.67923",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-04-03T14:38:50.168949Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-06T13:29:10.774073Z",
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      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
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      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
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      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
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      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-04-03T22:43:19Z",
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      "rewardsMinSize": 50,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.51,
      "oneDayPriceChange": 0.075,
      "oneHourPriceChange": 0.06,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.51,
      "bestBid": 0.05,
      "bestAsk": 0.56,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-04-03T22:41:59.085554Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
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      "feeType": null
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  "tags": [
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      "slug": "science",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:20.623+00",
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      "slug": "earthquakes",
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    {
      "id": "84",
      "label": "Weather",
      "slug": "weather",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:17:34.81+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:17:34.814Z",
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      "label": "Natural Disasters",
      "slug": "natural-disasters",
      "forceShow": false,
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  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
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  "enableNegRisk": false,
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