
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601). For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point. If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Ticker
magnitude-6pt5-earthquake-in-la-before-2027
Volume
20
24h volume
17
1w volume
20
Open interest
20
Liquidity
374
Liquidity CLOB
374
Start
Apr 3, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Apr 3, 2026
Event ID
339789
Slug
magnitude-6pt5-earthquake-in-la-before-2027
Markets
1
Raw event data
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"slug": "magnitude-6pt5-earthquake-in-la-before-2027",
"title": "Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).\n\nFor the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.\n\nIf an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.",
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"startDate": "2026-04-03T22:47:52.497411Z",
"creationDate": "2026-04-03T22:47:52.497407Z",
"endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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{
"id": "1845358",
"question": "Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?",
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"endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).\n\nFor the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.\n\nIf an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.",
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"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:20.623+00",
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"publishedAt": "2023-11-13 16:11:46.538+00",
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}- Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?Vol 20Liq 373End Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book