Major solar storm by April 30?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#) If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Ticker

major-solar-storm-by-april-30

Volume

9.9K

24h volume

7.9K

1w volume

9.9K

Open interest

0

Liquidity

1.3K

Liquidity CLOB

1.3K

Start

Mar 16, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 16, 2026

Event ID

277352

Slug

major-solar-storm-by-april-30

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "slug": "major-solar-storm-by-april-30",
  "title": "Major solar storm by April 30?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nAn S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a \"Strong\" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation\n\nThis market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked \"Current Space Weather Conditions\". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\". ",
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  "startDate": "2026-03-16T21:45:49.565918Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-03-16T21:45:49.565914Z",
  "endDate": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
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      "id": "1611289",
      "question": "Major solar storm by April 30?",
      "conditionId": "0x29547befede0104729812835c3c19339e56ce1b5730a146cc1056deb6a464867",
      "slug": "major-solar-storm-by-april-30",
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      "endDate": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
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      "startDate": "2026-03-16T21:43:22.414252Z",
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      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nAn S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a \"Strong\" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation\n\nThis market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked \"Current Space Weather Conditions\". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\". ",
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  "tags": [
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      "id": "84",
      "label": "Weather",
      "slug": "weather",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:17:34.81+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:17:34.814Z",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus leans heavily toward \"No\" on a major solar storm—defined as G4 or higher geomagnetic activity—by April 30, with 72.5% market-implied odds, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's latest forecasts showing no severe events expected. Current conditions reflect low solar activity: sunspot region AR3664, source of recent C-class flares, is rotating away from Earth-facing view, producing no significant coronal mass ejections (CMEs) per SOHO observations. Solar wind speeds remain moderate at 400-500 km/s, with Kp index peaking at G1 minor levels last week. Historical baselines during Solar Cycle 25's ascent show major storms rare without X-class flares and direct hits, justifying subdued probabilities amid quiet 27-day outlooks.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-03-18T16:16:26.944Z"
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}