Will Morgan Stanley (MS) beat quarterly earnings?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

As of market creation, Morgan Stanley is estimated to release earnings on April 15, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Morgan Stanley's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.00 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Morgan Stanley reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.00 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Morgan Stanley releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Ticker

ms-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-04-15-2026-3

Volume

98

24h volume

98

1w volume

98

Open interest

78

Liquidity

537

Liquidity CLOB

537

Start

Apr 1, 2026

End

Apr 15, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Apr 1, 2026

Resolution source

https://seekingalpha.com/

Event ID

333494

Slug

ms-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-04-15-2026-3

Markets

1

Tags

EarningsFinanceEquitiesHide From NewMS
Raw event data
{
  "id": "333494",
  "ticker": "ms-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-04-15-2026-3",
  "slug": "ms-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-04-15-2026-3",
  "title": "Will Morgan Stanley (MS) beat quarterly earnings?",
  "description": "As of market creation, Morgan Stanley is estimated to release earnings on April 15, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Morgan Stanley's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.00 as of market creation. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Morgan Stanley reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.00 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No.\" The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. \n\nIf Morgan Stanley releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” \n\nNote: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).\nNote: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. \nNote: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.\nNote: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.\nNote: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.\nNote: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.\nNote: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.\n",
  "resolutionSource": "https://seekingalpha.com/",
  "startDate": "2026-04-01T20:22:26.859668Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-04-01T20:22:26.859664Z",
  "endDate": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ms-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-04-15-2026-3-S2utLV1U6HOs.png",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ms-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-04-15-2026-3-S2utLV1U6HOs.png",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 537.3677,
  "volume": 98.365,
  "openInterest": 78.41,
  "sortBy": "ascending",
  "createdAt": "2026-04-01T20:15:13.580957Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-02T09:40:20.891524Z",
  "competitive": 0.9951238929246691,
  "volume24hr": 98.365,
  "volume1wk": 98.365,
  "volume1mo": 98.365,
  "volume1yr": 98.365,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 537.3677,
  "negRisk": false,
  "commentCount": 0,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "1819882",
      "question": "Will Morgan Stanley (MS) beat quarterly earnings?",
      "conditionId": "0x92cf1f0046f660297ac62942e517f4f66ff6c4bf11d51855c54558bac3b9e887",
      "slug": "ms-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-04-15-2026-3",
      "resolutionSource": "https://seekingalpha.com/",
      "endDate": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "537.3677",
      "startDate": "2026-04-01T20:20:06.611331Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ms-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-04-15-2026-3-S2utLV1U6HOs.png",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ms-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-04-15-2026-3-S2utLV1U6HOs.png",
      "description": "As of market creation, Morgan Stanley is estimated to release earnings on April 15, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Morgan Stanley's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.00 as of market creation. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Morgan Stanley reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.00 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No.\" The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. \n\nIf Morgan Stanley releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” \n\nNote: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).\nNote: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. \nNote: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.\nNote: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.\nNote: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.\nNote: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.\nNote: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.\n",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.57\", \"0.43\"]",
      "volume": "98.365",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-04-01T20:15:13.94023Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-02T09:39:54.337748Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0x04667540a4c76debc4db6d1749d3331092e67b4fe7a2306894c50c253eab65c4",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 98.365,
      "liquidityNum": 537.3677,
      "endDateIso": "2026-04-15",
      "startDateIso": "2026-04-01",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 98.365,
      "volume1wk": 98.365,
      "volume1mo": 98.365,
      "volume1yr": 98.365,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"42335466306284744013597449538995227791154064799074041395092619223196841052915\", \"66870236153444186767672481272637912802688307914724134385154689001908853775324\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 98.365,
      "volume1wkClob": 98.365,
      "volume1moClob": 98.365,
      "volume1yrClob": 98.365,
      "volumeClob": 98.365,
      "liquidityClob": 537.3677,
      "makerBaseFee": 1000,
      "takerBaseFee": 1000,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-04-01T20:19:01Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.9951238929246691,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "rewardsMinSize": 50,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.14,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.64,
      "bestBid": 0.5,
      "bestAsk": 0.64,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-04-01T20:17:47.805421Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "eventStartTime": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": "economics_fees",
      "feeSchedule": {
        "exponent": 1,
        "rate": 0.05,
        "takerOnly": true,
        "rebateRate": 0.25
      }
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "1013",
      "label": "Earnings",
      "slug": "earnings",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2024-02-06 19:27:48.024+00",
      "createdAt": "2024-02-06T19:27:48.029Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:34:18.642885Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "120",
      "label": "Finance",
      "slug": "finance",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:22:21.615+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:22:21.62Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:30:44.068593Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "102676",
      "label": "Equities",
      "slug": "equities",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-10-14T20:02:08.297777Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:26:22.792759Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "102169",
      "label": "Hide From New",
      "slug": "hide-from-new",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-05-23T18:47:07.430147Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:32:58.476595Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104423",
      "label": "MS",
      "slug": "ms",
      "createdAt": "2026-04-01T20:17:20.516045Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-01T20:20:09.127666Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "startTime": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a 57.5% implied probability for Morgan Stanley (MS) to surpass Q1 2026 earnings consensus of $2.92 per share—up 12.3% year-over-year—buoyed by the firm's streak of four straight EPS beats, capped by Q4 2025's $2.68 adjusted EPS that exceeded estimates on 47% higher investment banking fees and record $8.4 billion in wealth management revenue. Strong dealmaking revival and sustained client asset inflows underpin optimism, though traders price in risks from seasonal equity trading volatility and moderating net interest margins amid Fed policy expectations. The April 15 earnings release looms as the pivotal catalyst, with focus on revenue beats in institutional securities.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-02T08:29:13.036Z"
  }
}