NATO x Russia military clash by...?

Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025
Volume
973.6K
24h volume
2.8K
1w volume
22.0K
Open interest
Liquidity
15.9K
Liquidity CLOB
15.9K
Start
Sep 23, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Sep 23, 2025
Event ID
48930
Slug
nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025
Markets
Tags
Trump Presidency Trump russia Geopolitics World Ukraine
Raw event data
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  "title": "NATO x Russia military clash by...?",
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