Over 240 US flights cancelled on March 24?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations yesterday" figure on FlightAware is over specified number when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".

Ticker

over-240-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-24

Volume

927

24h volume

888

1w volume

927

Open interest

802

Liquidity

2.0K

Liquidity CLOB

2.0K

Start

Mar 23, 2026

End

Mar 25, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 23, 2026

Event ID

300654

Slug

over-240-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-24

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "id": "300654",
  "ticker": "over-240-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-24",
  "slug": "over-240-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-24",
  "title": "Over 240 US flights cancelled on March 24?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the \"Total cancellations yesterday\" figure on FlightAware is over specified number when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the \"Total cancellations yesterday\" figure on the \"FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday\" table when checked at the specified time.\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to \"No\".",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-03-23T22:07:23.008206Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-03-23T22:07:23.008203Z",
  "endDate": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/over-800-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-23-QDzh4idfeuaX.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/over-800-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-23-QDzh4idfeuaX.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 1963.89047,
  "volume": 927.232275,
  "openInterest": 801.680555,
  "createdAt": "2026-03-23T18:08:42.194616Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-03-25T08:20:22.125997Z",
  "competitive": 0.8073421308059757,
  "volume24hr": 887.800648,
  "volume1wk": 927.2322749999998,
  "volume1mo": 927.2322749999998,
  "volume1yr": 927.2322749999998,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 1963.89047,
  "commentCount": 1,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "1693917",
      "question": "Over 240 US flights cancelled on March 24?",
      "conditionId": "0x23b2d8a6eeb4cd8f4ed0e099f28381956ef485a1e97447cf4498983354596832",
      "slug": "over-240-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-24",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "1936.22295",
      "startDate": "2026-03-23T22:05:02.82677Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/over-800-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-23-QDzh4idfeuaX.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/over-800-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-23-QDzh4idfeuaX.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the \"Total cancellations yesterday\" figure on FlightAware is over specified number when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the \"Total cancellations yesterday\" figure on the \"FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday\" table when checked at the specified time.\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to \"No\".",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.9885\", \"0.0115\"]",
      "volume": "927.232275",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-23T18:08:43.124264Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-25T08:21:46.315035Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0x73983bd220922c8ff8314ecb0cf6ec5fc4f979f2aa775d573af134bc73b45366",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 927.232275,
      "liquidityNum": 1936.22295,
      "endDateIso": "2026-03-25",
      "startDateIso": "2026-03-23",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 887.800648,
      "volume1wk": 927.2322749999998,
      "volume1mo": 927.2322749999998,
      "volume1yr": 927.2322749999998,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"43023126992639224128257587386652310952690091078286329329899794037025166660750\", \"36218256316635049020172316766945220245219742983977465377090226843215133512332\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 887.800648,
      "volume1wkClob": 927.2322749999998,
      "volume1moClob": 927.2322749999998,
      "volume1yrClob": 927.2322749999998,
      "volumeClob": 927.232275,
      "liquidityClob": 1936.22295,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-23T22:03:57Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8073421308059757,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "rewardsMinSize": 50,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.017,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.997,
      "bestBid": 0.98,
      "bestAsk": 0.997,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-23T21:58:44.928147Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "179",
      "label": "travel",
      "slug": "travel",
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:31:06.643+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:31:06.651Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:32:44.458552Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "596",
      "label": "Culture",
      "slug": "pop-culture",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-29 18:40:13.013+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-29T18:40:14.63Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:06.806106Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
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  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Severe weather disruptions, including heavy snow and thunderstorms blanketing the Northeast and South, have already triggered over 1,000 U.S. flight cancellations by midday March 24, smashing the 240 threshold and locking in trader consensus at 98.9% for Yes. FAA data and FlightAware reports confirm major carriers like Delta, United, and Southwest axed hundreds of flights amid low visibility and icing, echoing patterns from past winter storms that routinely exceed this bar. Public sentiment on social media amplifies frustration with travel chaos during peak spring break, further solidifying market conviction. Realistic upsets are slim—perhaps an abrupt weather break or rapid de-icing—but with evening hubs like Atlanta and Chicago still hammered, resolution hinges on final tallies from official sources by midnight.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-03-25T08:16:22.373Z"
  }
}