Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 450 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 27, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".

Ticker

over-450-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-27

Volume

966

24h volume

544

1w volume

966

Open interest

324

Liquidity

723

Liquidity CLOB

723

Start

Mar 26, 2026

End

Mar 27, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 26, 2026

Resolution source

https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday

Event ID

310553

Slug

over-450-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-27

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "id": "310553",
  "ticker": "over-450-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-27",
  "slug": "over-450-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-27",
  "title": "Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the \"Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday\" figure on FlightAware is greater than 450 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 27, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the \"Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday\" figure on the \"FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday\" table when checked at the specified time.\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to \"No\".",
  "resolutionSource": "https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday",
  "startDate": "2026-03-26T20:13:26.550111Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-03-26T20:13:26.550106Z",
  "endDate": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/over-800-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-23-QDzh4idfeuaX.jpg",
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  "active": true,
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  "liquidity": 723.14433,
  "volume": 965.610333,
  "openInterest": 323.93988,
  "sortBy": "alphabetical",
  "createdAt": "2026-03-26T15:52:11.78561Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-03-28T14:50:03.515976Z",
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  "volume1mo": 965.610333,
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  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 723.14433,
  "negRisk": false,
  "commentCount": 0,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "1731376",
      "question": "Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?",
      "conditionId": "0xf780c252eb1ac221242b50ca55a392f326262681db5cdd9a48f5650adda506b4",
      "slug": "over-450-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-27",
      "resolutionSource": "https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday",
      "endDate": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "735.81046",
      "startDate": "2026-03-26T20:11:29.198858Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/over-800-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-23-QDzh4idfeuaX.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/over-800-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-23-QDzh4idfeuaX.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the \"Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday\" figure on FlightAware is greater than 450 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 27, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the \"Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday\" figure on the \"FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday\" table when checked at the specified time.\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to \"No\".",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.033\", \"0.967\"]",
      "volume": "965.610333",
      "active": true,
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      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-26T15:52:12.200754Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-28T14:49:39.843979Z",
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      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
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      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 965.610333,
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      "endDateIso": "2026-03-27",
      "startDateIso": "2026-03-26",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 543.897306,
      "volume1wk": 965.610333,
      "volume1mo": 965.610333,
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      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
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      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-26T20:10:23Z",
      "cyom": false,
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      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "rewardsMinSize": 50,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.062,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.002,
      "bestBid": 0.002,
      "bestAsk": 0.064,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-26T20:09:09.749393Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "eventStartTime": "2026-03-26T18:00:00Z",
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
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  "series": [
    {
      "id": "11415",
      "ticker": "flight-cancellations-daily",
      "slug": "flight-cancellations-daily",
      "title": "flight-cancellations-daily",
      "seriesType": "single",
      "recurrence": "daily",
      "image": "",
      "icon": "",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "archived": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-24T16:57:32.304286Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-28T14:48:05.65436Z",
      "volume24hr": 667.687512,
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      "liquidity": 1329.52819,
      "commentCount": 11,
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  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "103820",
      "label": "airport",
      "slug": "airport",
      "createdAt": "2026-02-18T22:58:19.887039Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:02.819478Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "101333",
      "label": "TSA",
      "slug": "tsa",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2024-11-26T21:48:31.196837Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:22:01.903617Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "101542",
      "label": "Gov Shutdown",
      "slug": "gov-shutdown",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2024-12-18T17:29:52.476644Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-12T15:57:40.316622Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "103141",
      "label": "DHS",
      "slug": "dhs",
      "createdAt": "2026-01-14T20:42:13.771399Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:18:41.417483Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "startTime": "2026-03-26T18:00:00Z",
  "seriesSlug": "flight-cancellations-daily",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
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  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "FlightAware data for March 27, 2026, records just 336 cancellations within, into, or out of the United States—primarily at LaGuardia (61 originating) from Republic, Southwest, and Spirit—far below the 450 threshold amid routine operations. FAA reports highlighted potential delays from high winds in New York and Philadelphia plus isolated thunderstorms in Chicago and Indianapolis, but no widespread disruptions or ground stops. Persistent TSA staffing shortages tied to the partial DHS shutdown fueled around 3,000-6,000 delays per preliminary counts and trader consensus in related markets, yet carriers avoided mass cancellations. With near-final FlightAware stats as the resolution source, traders' 96.8% \"No\" consensus anticipates stability barring rare data revisions.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-03-28T14:00:31.295Z"
  }
}