Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 29?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United states yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 29, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United states yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".

Ticker

over-500-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-29

Volume

10

24h volume

10

1w volume

10

Open interest

10

Liquidity

23

Liquidity CLOB

23

Start

Mar 27, 2026

End

Mar 29, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 27, 2026

Resolution source

https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday

Event ID

315516

Slug

over-500-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-29

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "ticker": "over-500-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-29",
  "slug": "over-500-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-29",
  "title": "Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 29?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the \"Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United states yesterday\" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 29, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the \"Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United states yesterday\" figure on the \"FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday\" table when checked at the specified time.\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to \"No\".",
  "resolutionSource": "https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday",
  "startDate": "2026-03-27T22:16:32.929251Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-03-27T22:16:32.929235Z",
  "endDate": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/over-800-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-23-QDzh4idfeuaX.jpg",
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  "closed": false,
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  "liquidity": 23.3468,
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  "sortBy": "alphabetical",
  "createdAt": "2026-03-27T22:02:41.632913Z",
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  "negRisk": false,
  "commentCount": 0,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "1748616",
      "question": "Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 29?",
      "conditionId": "0x7bd554040d95de8f6c0948d6c8678dcc49f848b56c01492b53fd0ca28c42d5ce",
      "slug": "over-500-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-29",
      "resolutionSource": "https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday",
      "endDate": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "23.3468",
      "startDate": "2026-03-27T22:13:43.033083Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/over-800-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-23-QDzh4idfeuaX.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/over-800-us-flights-cancelled-on-march-23-QDzh4idfeuaX.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the \"Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United states yesterday\" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 29, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the \"Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United states yesterday\" figure on the \"FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday\" table when checked at the specified time.\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to \"No\".",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.385\", \"0.615\"]",
      "volume": "9.677414",
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      "createdAt": "2026-03-27T22:02:41.950312Z",
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      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
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      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
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      "endDateIso": "2026-03-29",
      "startDateIso": "2026-03-27",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 9.677414,
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      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
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      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
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      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-27T22:12:37Z",
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      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.71,
      "bestBid": 0.03,
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      "automaticallyActive": true,
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      "showGmpSeries": false,
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      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-27T22:05:09.802021Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "eventStartTime": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
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  "series": [
    {
      "id": "11415",
      "ticker": "flight-cancellations-daily",
      "slug": "flight-cancellations-daily",
      "title": "flight-cancellations-daily",
      "seriesType": "single",
      "recurrence": "daily",
      "image": "",
      "icon": "",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "archived": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-24T16:57:32.304286Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-28T05:15:53.268729Z",
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  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "101333",
      "label": "TSA",
      "slug": "tsa",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2024-11-26T21:48:31.196837Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:22:01.903617Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "101542",
      "label": "Gov Shutdown",
      "slug": "gov-shutdown",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2024-12-18T17:29:52.476644Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-12T15:57:40.316622Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "103820",
      "label": "airport",
      "slug": "airport",
      "createdAt": "2026-02-18T22:58:19.887039Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:02.819478Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "103141",
      "label": "DHS",
      "slug": "dhs",
      "createdAt": "2026-01-14T20:42:13.771399Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:18:41.417483Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
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  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "startTime": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
  "seriesSlug": "flight-cancellations-daily",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Following mid-March winter storms that peaked at over 1,800 U.S. flight cancellations on March 16 per FlightAware data, daily totals have declined sharply amid improving weather, with 261 cancellations on March 27 and 227 on March 28. Forecasts indicate no severe disruptions at major airports Saturday, though FAA notes possible high winds in New York and Philadelphia alongside isolated thunderstorms in Chicago. Persistent TSA staffing shortages—driven by a DHS funding impasse and officer quits during spring break surge—have fueled delays but not elevated cancellations above 500 recently. Traders' 61.5% implied probability on \"No\" reflects this stabilizing trend and absence of imminent catalysts like new storms or agency actions.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-03-28T04:15:49.670Z"
  }
}