Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by March 31?

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    "context_description": "Escalating cross-border tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, driven by Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) attacks launched from Afghan territory, form the primary driver behind the 60% implied probability for Pakistani military action by March 31. Recent catalysts include a deadly December 2024 suicide bombing in Pakistan that killed over 20 soldiers—blamed on TTP—prompting Pakistani airstrikes into Afghanistan's Khost and Paktika provinces on December 29, as confirmed by military spokespersons. Pakistan's army chief has reiterated demands for Taliban action against TTP havens, amid ongoing border closures and diplomatic expulsions. Traders weigh this history of retaliation against uncertain Afghan compliance, with no new strikes announced but risks elevated by persistent militancy.",
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