
Pakistan military action against Kabul by March 31?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike within the municipality of Kabul by the specified date Afghanistan Time (GMT+4:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
pakistan-military-action-against-kabul-by-march-31
Volume
9.5K
24h volume
684
1w volume
9.5K
Open interest
1.8K
Liquidity
8.4K
Liquidity CLOB
8.4K
Start
Mar 18, 2026
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 18, 2026
Event ID
281165
Slug
pakistan-military-action-against-kabul-by-march-31
Markets
1
Raw event data
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"title": "Pakistan military action against Kabul by March 31?",
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"context_description": "Trader consensus favoring \"No\" at 62.5% stems from the absence of official Pakistani announcements, troop mobilizations, or escalatory rhetoric targeting Kabul directly by March 31, despite persistent border tensions with Taliban-led Afghanistan over Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants. Recent Pakistani airstrikes have focused on remote Afghan border areas, not the capital, following TTP attacks inside Pakistan, but Islamabad emphasizes diplomatic channels, including recent high-level talks in Kabul and Islamabad. Afghan officials have warned of retaliation without confirming imminent threats, while no verified intelligence suggests invasion-scale operations. Upcoming Taliban-Pakistan security dialogues could further de-escalate, aligning with historical patterns of contained skirmishes rather than urban assaults.",
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"context_updated_at": "2026-03-24T08:33:31.111Z"
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}- Pakistan military action against Kabul by March 31?Vol 9.6KLiq 8.9KEnd Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book