
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 23?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Armed Forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Kyiv municipality between market creation and the specified date, Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles, but excluding surface-to-air missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces on Kyiv municipality's ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts. Attacks that consist primarily or exclusively of missiles or drones that are intercepted will still qualify if they constitute a strike against Kyiv municipality during the specified timeframe, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Clear evidence of a strike directed against Kyiv municipality within the specified area and timeframe will be sufficient. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, surface-to-air missiles, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers; in the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official statements from the Ukrainian military (e.g., the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and Ukrainian government authorities, including the Kyiv City State Administration and the Mayor of Kyiv. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
russia-military-action-against-kyiv-municipality-by-march-23
Volume
1.1K
24h volume
1.1K
1w volume
1.1K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
13.0K
Liquidity CLOB
13.0K
Start
Mar 19, 2026
End
Mar 23, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 19, 2026
Event ID
286330
Slug
russia-military-action-against-kyiv-municipality-by-march-23
Markets
1
Raw event data
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"title": "Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 23?",
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"id": "95",
"label": "russia",
"slug": "russia",
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:18:49.314+00",
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{
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"label": "strike",
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"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:15:42.091+00",
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"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Recent Russian missile and drone strikes on Kyiv, including a March 17 barrage that killed at least two and wounded dozens while targeting residential areas, drive the 56.5% implied probability of further military action against the Kyiv municipality by March 23. Ukrainian air defenses have intercepted over 200 projectiles in recent nights amid intensified Russian campaigns, with no de-escalation from Moscow despite U.S.-brokered peace talks stalling. Official statements from Zelenskyy highlight persistent aerial threats, while Putin's rejection of unconditional ceasefires reinforces trader consensus on continued assaults, aligning with the pattern of weekly incursions hitting the capital.",
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"context_updated_at": "2026-03-20T15:30:57.512Z"
}
}- Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 23?Vol 1.1KLiq 13.0KEnd Mar 23, 2026OpenOrder book