Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?

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    "context_description": "Russia's recent escalation of aerial assaults on Ukraine, including a massive barrage of over 420 drones and 20 missiles overnight around March 27 that struck Kyiv among other regions, has fueled trader sentiment toward a 61.5% implied probability of further military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31. This follows large-scale drone and missile strikes on Kyiv on March 13-14 causing civilian casualties, and intensified attacks since mid-March amid stalled peace talks and Russian advances of heavy equipment to front lines. Ukrainian air defenses have downed many incoming threats, but the persistent pattern of targeting the capital—coupled with air raid alerts as recent as March 23—reflects trader consensus on likely continuation before the deadline, barring de-escalation signals.",
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