Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Ticker

russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-april-30-2026

Volume

307.8K

24h volume

86.2K

1w volume

200.7K

Open interest

0

Liquidity

90.6K

Liquidity CLOB

90.6K

Start

Feb 26, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Feb 26, 2026

Event ID

230959

Slug

russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-april-30-2026

Markets

1

Raw event data
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