Russian strike on a NATO member by...?

Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between September 24 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact the ground territory of a NATO member state or an official embassy/consulate of a NATO member (e.g., if a weapons depot on NATO territory is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes conducted directly by ground operatives, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
russian-strike-on-a-nato-member-by-october-31
Volume
1.6M
24h volume
1w volume
40.3K
Open interest
Liquidity
10.7K
Liquidity CLOB
10.7K
Start
Sep 24, 2025
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Sep 24, 2025
Event ID
48935
Slug
russian-strike-on-a-nato-member-by-october-31
Markets
Tags
Geopolitics nato russia
Raw event data
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  "title": "Russian strike on a NATO member by...?",
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      "question": "Russian strike on a NATO member by December 31?",
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Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?
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