Russian strike on Poland by...?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

russian-strike-on-poland-by-september-30

Volume

1.9M

24h volume

184

1w volume

755.7K

Open interest

0

Liquidity

4.9K

Liquidity CLOB

4.9K

Start

Sep 9, 2025

End

Dec 31, 2025

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Sep 9, 2025

Event ID

42958

Slug

russian-strike-on-poland-by-september-30

Markets

3

Tags

GeopoliticsrussiaWorldPoland
Raw event data
{
  "id": "42958",
  "ticker": "russian-strike-on-poland-by-september-30",
  "slug": "russian-strike-on-poland-by-september-30",
  "title": "Russian strike on Poland by...?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2025-09-09T23:53:18.246814Z",
  "creationDate": "2025-09-09T23:53:18.246811Z",
  "endDate": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-strike-on-poland-by-september-30-fPekvH2pIJNF.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-strike-on-poland-by-september-30-fPekvH2pIJNF.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 4886.45705,
  "volume": 1881098.854293,
  "openInterest": 0,
  "createdAt": "2025-09-09T23:15:01.038216Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-02-22T09:04:04.418104Z",
  "competitive": 0.8284832542822228,
  "volume24hr": 183.639228,
  "volume1wk": 755705.9336230003,
  "volume1mo": 1759945.9524239972,
  "volume1yr": 1881098.8542929972,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 4886.45705,
  "negRisk": false,
  "commentCount": 240,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "592190",
      "question": "Russian strike on Poland by September 30?",
      "conditionId": "0x04312a6f413f595c64cb6975ac51253030da24b3670f85325638e37011bb9138",
      "slug": "russian-strike-on-poland-by-september-30",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2025-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "startDate": "2025-09-09T23:49:55.475Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-strike-on-poland-by-september-30-fPekvH2pIJNF.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-strike-on-poland-by-september-30-fPekvH2pIJNF.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
      "volume": "1663225.415995",
      "active": true,
      "closed": true,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2025-09-09T23:15:02.236286Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:38:49.707599Z",
      "closedTime": "2025-10-01 06:10:51+00",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "September 30",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0xcdc3ecde50877badffcda8214dd727a75bda1153baf19e8960f99a09f9479c68",
      "umaEndDate": "2025-10-01T06:10:51Z",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
      "volumeNum": 1663225.415995,
      "endDateIso": "2025-09-30",
      "startDateIso": "2025-09-09",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume1wk": 725324.1410120003,
      "volume1mo": 1663225.4159949971,
      "volume1yr": 1663225.4159949971,
      "gameStartTime": "2025-09-30 19:00:00+00",
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"20416813738169974101940254883392026278751541018197258018791008370731813485603\", \"59372373223927136873957605937740531723620084360706474012296728063162510638594\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume1wkClob": 725324.1410120003,
      "volume1moClob": 1663225.4159949971,
      "volume1yrClob": 1663225.4159949971,
      "volumeClob": 1663225.415995,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": false,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-09-09T23:49:34Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "34459",
          "conditionId": "0x04312a6f413f595c64cb6975ac51253030da24b3670f85325638e37011bb9138",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 1,
          "startDate": "2025-09-09",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 200,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
      "spread": 0.003,
      "automaticallyResolved": true,
      "oneDayPriceChange": -0.0035,
      "oneHourPriceChange": -0.0005,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": -0.0235,
      "lastTradePrice": 1,
      "bestBid": 0.001,
      "bestAsk": 0.004,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "seriesColor": "",
      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2025-09-09T23:49:02.944986Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    },
    {
      "id": "614694",
      "question": "Russian strike on Poland by December 31?",
      "conditionId": "0xc202126ae7b6a04608fefbde73290fd2037b1b98191754c708807b6a3329cca7",
      "slug": "russian-strike-on-poland-by-december-31",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2025-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "startDate": "2025-09-26T21:52:54.402Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-strike-on-poland-by-september-30-fPekvH2pIJNF.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-strike-on-poland-by-september-30-fPekvH2pIJNF.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
      "volume": "185443.291699",
      "active": true,
      "closed": true,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2025-09-26T20:26:01.102059Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:38:49.728776Z",
      "closedTime": "2026-01-01 07:36:37+00",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "December 31",
      "groupItemThreshold": "1",
      "questionID": "0x7f3a39e1503a5b7821d9fd46e1dc94c262079998d1c4da8245b8c9663664dabc",
      "umaEndDate": "2026-01-01T07:36:37Z",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
      "volumeNum": 185443.291699,
      "endDateIso": "2025-09-30",
      "startDateIso": "2025-09-26",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume1wk": 29737.629134000003,
      "volume1mo": 91746.75530799999,
      "volume1yr": 185443.29169900005,
      "gameStartTime": "2025-09-30 19:00:00+00",
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"88916652984491263694822950749920264226698919563435662325050714245888891141711\", \"43595135817135362065920827622928802808498448247111831116189541101228852838913\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume1wkClob": 29737.629134000003,
      "volume1moClob": 91746.75530799999,
      "volume1yrClob": 185443.29169900005,
      "volumeClob": 185443.291699,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": false,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-09-26T21:52:33Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "rewardsMinSize": 50,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.001,
      "automaticallyResolved": true,
      "oneDayPriceChange": 0.0015,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": -0.0065,
      "oneMonthPriceChange": -0.0245,
      "lastTradePrice": 1,
      "bestAsk": 0.001,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "seriesColor": "",
      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2025-09-26T21:52:02.354543Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    },
    {
      "id": "677406",
      "question": "Russian strike on Poland by June 30?",
      "conditionId": "0xb553a25b7670031fc7cf095e79525406f10b3cf66e793255836fc1fb95bf8f7c",
      "slug": "russian-strike-on-poland-by-june-30",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "4914.32705",
      "startDate": "2025-11-13T23:12:27.93234Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-strike-on-poland-by-september-30-fPekvH2pIJNF.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-strike-on-poland-by-september-30-fPekvH2pIJNF.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.045\", \"0.955\"]",
      "volume": "32430.146599",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2025-11-11T22:53:16.230647Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-22T09:07:04.965153Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "June 30, 2026",
      "groupItemThreshold": "2",
      "questionID": "0x43ecfc066ceb4874659db78d3a447136ff1a3df793bdd2dd0242d8e5ed437256",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 32430.146599,
      "liquidityNum": 4914.32705,
      "endDateIso": "2026-06-30",
      "startDateIso": "2025-11-13",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 183.639228,
      "volume1wk": 644.163477,
      "volume1mo": 4973.781121000001,
      "volume1yr": 32430.14659899999,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"74625788546207951131898990201997622306370629069381444964066858494809066554878\", \"18550128784183569866612992061648865265126250191843283604575294212276554328698\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 183.639228,
      "volume1wkClob": 644.163477,
      "volume1moClob": 4973.781121000001,
      "volume1yrClob": 32430.14659899999,
      "volumeClob": 32430.146599,
      "liquidityClob": 4914.32705,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-11-13T23:12:06Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8284832542822228,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "rewardsMinSize": 20,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
      "spread": 0.036,
      "oneDayPriceChange": -0.0095,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": 0.002,
      "oneMonthPriceChange": -0.009,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.052,
      "bestBid": 0.027,
      "bestAsk": 0.063,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "seriesColor": "",
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2025-11-13T22:54:54.513386Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:10:12.806715Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "95",
      "label": "russia",
      "slug": "russia",
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:18:49.314+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:18:49.32Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:08:22.441192Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "101970",
      "label": "World",
      "slug": "world",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:04:41.800728Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "1383",
      "label": "Poland",
      "slug": "poland",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2024-02-21 00:28:43.733+00",
      "createdAt": "2024-02-21T00:28:43.761Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:18:20.721674Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": false,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "gmpChartMode": "default",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "cumulativeMarkets": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false
}