Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by March 31?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Saudi Arabia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Arabian Standard Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Saudi Arabia's military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Saudi Arabian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Saudi Arabian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date, this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Ticker

saudi-arabia-military-action-against-yemen-by-march-31

Volume

268

24h volume

268

1w volume

268

Open interest

0

Liquidity

5.6K

Liquidity CLOB

5.6K

Start

Mar 18, 2026

End

Mar 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 18, 2026

Event ID

281097

Slug

saudi-arabia-military-action-against-yemen-by-march-31

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "title": "Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by March 31?",
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      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:53:11.96+00",
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      "publishedAt": "2023-12-14 19:37:04.448+00",
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    "context_description": "Saudi Arabia's ongoing commitment to the 2022 Yemen truce and diplomatic push for a political settlement with Houthi rebels form the core driver behind the 89.5% implied probability favoring no military action by March 31, reflecting trader consensus on de-escalation priorities. Riyadh has maintained restraint amid Houthi Red Sea attacks linked to the Israel-Gaza conflict, condemning disruptions without resuming airstrikes or ground operations, as evidenced by recent Oman-mediated talks and China's brokered 2023 détente. No official Saudi announcements signal escalation, with focus on Vision 2030 economic reforms outweighing conflict resumption risks; upcoming UN-led negotiations further bolster expectations of continued calm.",
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