Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Ticker

strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may

Volume

1.5K

24h volume

1.5K

1w volume

1.5K

Open interest

1.4K

Liquidity

10.9K

Liquidity CLOB

10.9K

Start

Mar 31, 2026

End

May 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 31, 2026

Event ID

329821

Slug

strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may

Markets

1

Tags

transitGeopoliticsU.S. x IranHormuzMacro GeopoliticsOilStrait of HormuzshipsEconomyChinaIran
Raw event data
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  "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?",
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      "id": "11492",
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      "title": "Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Amid the US-Iran conflict that erupted in late February 2026, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, with only 181 vessels recorded in March—down over 70% from pre-war averages of around 138 daily transits—driving trader consensus toward \"No\" at 52.5% for normalization by May's end. Recent developments include Iran's IRGC opening a tolled passage, enabling at least 20 controlled crossings since March 28, alongside President Trump's extension of negotiation deadlines and paused threats against Iranian energy sites, fostering a closely contested market. Escalation via military strikes or failed diplomacy could prolong the blockade, while successful talks or de-escalation signals might restore full commercial flows, tipping odds toward \"Yes.\" Trump's April 1 address to the nation looms as a key catalyst.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-01T00:43:59.163Z"
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