Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 27, 2026, than on March 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 20, 2026, than on March 27, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date. The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date. If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Ticker

trump-approval-up-or-down-this-week-394

Volume

9.7K

24h volume

2.7K

1w volume

9.7K

Open interest

4.2K

Liquidity

6.7K

Liquidity CLOB

6.7K

Start

Mar 20, 2026

End

Mar 28, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 20, 2026

Event ID

290333

Slug

trump-approval-up-or-down-this-week-394

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "title": "Trump approval Up or Down this week?",
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    "context_description": "President-elect Trump's approval rating faces near-unanimous trader consensus for a weekly decline on Polymarket, with \"Down\" at 99.5% implied probability. This reflects the latest YouGov and other major polls released this week, confirming a drop from recent highs amid backlash to his Truth Social attacks on Republican leaders over the controversial year-end spending bill, which averted a government shutdown but fueled perceptions of party infighting. The measurement window has closed without rebound catalysts like favorable economic data or endorsements, locking in the downward shift. While data revisions or polling errors could theoretically alter resolution, such scenarios are exceedingly rare in established trackers.",
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    "context_updated_at": "2026-03-27T22:22:07.397Z"
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