Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 3, 2026, than on March 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 27, 2026, than on April 3, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date. The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date. If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Ticker

trump-approval-up-or-down-this-week-678

Volume

987

24h volume

500

1w volume

987

Open interest

663

Liquidity

1.9K

Liquidity CLOB

1.9K

Start

Mar 27, 2026

End

Apr 4, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 27, 2026

Event ID

314066

Slug

trump-approval-up-or-down-this-week-678

Markets

1

Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Recent polls from Reuters/Ipsos and Gallup show President Trump's approval rating dipping to 36-38% this week, down from around 40% last week, reflecting trader consensus at 55% odds for further decline. This slide stems primarily from eroding support on the economy, where net approval on prices has plunged to -39 amid rising fuel costs tied to the ongoing Iran conflict, including recent airstrikes and escalation signals. Cost-of-living concerns and foreign policy handling have weighed heavily, with independents driving the drop per aggregates like Nate Silver's tracker and Economist/YouGov. No major rebound catalysts have emerged, though upcoming economic data releases could influence final weekly averages.",
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