US bank failure by April 30?

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  "tags": [
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      "id": "100328",
      "label": "Economy",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Polymarket traders assign an 84.5% implied probability to no US bank failure by April 30, reflecting the sector's resilience after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) sole 2026 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust on January 30, with no further failures amid $19.7 million deposit insurance fund cost and zero contagion. Stabilizing commercial real estate exposures, bolstered by Federal Reserve rate cuts enabling renewed lending volumes projected at $805 billion for 2026 per Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts, underpin this consensus, alongside robust February stress test scenarios showing banks weathering severe recession hypotheticals. Banking return on assets held at 1.24% recently, with Q1 earnings and April 1 capital rule easings as key near-term catalysts that could affirm or test positioning.",
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    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-05T16:55:14.532Z"
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