U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.

Ticker

us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-april-30

Volume

99

24h volume

99

1w volume

99

Open interest

79

Liquidity

1.2K

Liquidity CLOB

1.2K

Start

Mar 24, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 24, 2026

Event ID

304142

Slug

us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-april-30

Markets

1

Raw event data
{
  "id": "304142",
  "ticker": "us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-april-30",
  "slug": "us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-april-30",
  "title": "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.\n\nAnnouncements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.  ",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-03-24T20:58:43.474982Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-03-24T20:58:43.474975Z",
  "endDate": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-march-31-zBCy3tDgJP_7.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-march-31-zBCy3tDgJP_7.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 1192.6291,
  "volume": 98.79165,
  "openInterest": 78.79165,
  "createdAt": "2026-03-24T18:59:00.118965Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-03-25T06:09:49.574407Z",
  "competitive": 0.8908685968819599,
  "volume24hr": 98.79165,
  "volume1wk": 98.79165,
  "volume1mo": 98.79165,
  "volume1yr": 98.79165,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 1192.6291,
  "commentCount": 0,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "1707324",
      "question": "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?",
      "conditionId": "0x2fdc9378687811c1d2cea4a34b7fde554fae02eed16f21ee54fd1a5abdc99c11",
      "slug": "us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-april-30",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "1196.1291",
      "startDate": "2026-03-24T20:55:40.185883Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-march-31-zBCy3tDgJP_7.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-march-31-zBCy3tDgJP_7.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.\n\nAnnouncements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.  ",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.15\", \"0.85\"]",
      "volume": "98.79165",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-24T18:59:02.100936Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-25T06:08:51.233553Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0xae93324e482d7becbb6baecb8a814ea305baf2a297cf0bf8d9c4ea64e3f8690a",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 98.79165,
      "liquidityNum": 1196.1291,
      "endDateIso": "2026-04-30",
      "startDateIso": "2026-03-24",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 98.79165,
      "volume1wk": 98.79165,
      "volume1mo": 98.79165,
      "volume1yr": 98.79165,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"60784714861549841542915815972657659375112616313264807188054172675310454230168\", \"39083788455093609599636773401898597614043265475072228808837297605098922712804\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 98.79165,
      "volume1wkClob": 98.79165,
      "volume1moClob": 98.79165,
      "volume1yrClob": 98.79165,
      "volumeClob": 98.79165,
      "liquidityClob": 1196.1291,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-24T20:54:35Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8908685968819599,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "113264",
          "conditionId": "0x2fdc9378687811c1d2cea4a34b7fde554fae02eed16f21ee54fd1a5abdc99c11",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 10,
          "startDate": "2026-03-25",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 20,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 5.5,
      "spread": 0.1,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.1,
      "bestBid": 0.1,
      "bestAsk": 0.2,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-24T20:52:50.044258Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "series": [
    {
      "id": "11422",
      "ticker": "us-evacuates-beirut-embassy",
      "slug": "us-evacuates-beirut-embassy",
      "title": "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy",
      "seriesType": "single",
      "recurrence": "monthly",
      "image": "",
      "icon": "",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "archived": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-24T18:57:03.193722Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-25T06:07:53.007281Z",
      "volume24hr": 98.79165,
      "volume": 98.79165,
      "liquidity": 1192.6291,
      "commentCount": 0,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104064",
      "label": "Israel x Iran",
      "slug": "israel-x-iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-03T03:22:41.390984Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:30:24.067082Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "126",
      "label": "Trump",
      "slug": "trump",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:23:16.384+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:23:16.39Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:19:01.330974Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104009",
      "label": "Regional Spillover",
      "slug": "regional-spillover",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-02T19:56:34.326195Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:43.321334Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "849",
      "label": "Lebanon",
      "slug": "lebanon",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2024-01-09 20:34:03.181+00",
      "createdAt": "2024-01-09T20:34:03.207Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:22.686201Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "154",
      "label": "Middle East",
      "slug": "middle-east",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:26:20.585+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:26:20.601Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.104846Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "180",
      "label": "Israel",
      "slug": "israel",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:31:07.39+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:31:07.395Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:02.801468Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "seriesSlug": "us-evacuates-beirut-embassy",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus leans heavily against a full U.S. evacuation of the Beirut Embassy by April 30, with \"No\" shares at 72.5%, reflecting the State Department's current posture of authorized departure for nonessential personnel and family members since September 2024, but no ordered departure for core diplomatic staff. Ongoing Israel-Hezbollah cross-border exchanges have heightened risks in Lebanon, yet official U.S. assessments deem the embassy viable amid diplomatic efforts for de-escalation, including recent U.N. ceasefire resolutions and U.S.-mediated talks. No primary announcements signal imminent full withdrawal, and historical precedents show embassies enduring similar volatility without evacuation, tempering trader expectations despite fluid regional dynamics.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-03-25T05:30:32.331Z"
  }
}