
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Ticker
us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-april-30
Volume
99
24h volume
99
1w volume
99
Open interest
79
Liquidity
1.2K
Liquidity CLOB
1.2K
Start
Mar 24, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 24, 2026
Event ID
304142
Slug
us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-april-30
Markets
1
Raw event data
{
"id": "304142",
"ticker": "us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-april-30",
"slug": "us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-april-30",
"title": "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.\n\nAnnouncements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. ",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2026-03-24T20:58:43.474982Z",
"creationDate": "2026-03-24T20:58:43.474975Z",
"endDate": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-march-31-zBCy3tDgJP_7.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-march-31-zBCy3tDgJP_7.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 1192.6291,
"volume": 98.79165,
"openInterest": 78.79165,
"createdAt": "2026-03-24T18:59:00.118965Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-25T06:09:49.574407Z",
"competitive": 0.8908685968819599,
"volume24hr": 98.79165,
"volume1wk": 98.79165,
"volume1mo": 98.79165,
"volume1yr": 98.79165,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 1192.6291,
"commentCount": 0,
"markets": [
{
"id": "1707324",
"question": "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?",
"conditionId": "0x2fdc9378687811c1d2cea4a34b7fde554fae02eed16f21ee54fd1a5abdc99c11",
"slug": "us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-april-30",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "1196.1291",
"startDate": "2026-03-24T20:55:40.185883Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-march-31-zBCy3tDgJP_7.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-march-31-zBCy3tDgJP_7.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.\n\nAnnouncements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. ",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.15\", \"0.85\"]",
"volume": "98.79165",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-03-24T18:59:02.100936Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-25T06:08:51.233553Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0xae93324e482d7becbb6baecb8a814ea305baf2a297cf0bf8d9c4ea64e3f8690a",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 98.79165,
"liquidityNum": 1196.1291,
"endDateIso": "2026-04-30",
"startDateIso": "2026-03-24",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 98.79165,
"volume1wk": 98.79165,
"volume1mo": 98.79165,
"volume1yr": 98.79165,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"60784714861549841542915815972657659375112616313264807188054172675310454230168\", \"39083788455093609599636773401898597614043265475072228808837297605098922712804\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 98.79165,
"volume1wkClob": 98.79165,
"volume1moClob": 98.79165,
"volume1yrClob": 98.79165,
"volumeClob": 98.79165,
"liquidityClob": 1196.1291,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-24T20:54:35Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.8908685968819599,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "113264",
"conditionId": "0x2fdc9378687811c1d2cea4a34b7fde554fae02eed16f21ee54fd1a5abdc99c11",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 10,
"startDate": "2026-03-25",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 5.5,
"spread": 0.1,
"lastTradePrice": 0.1,
"bestBid": 0.1,
"bestAsk": 0.2,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-24T20:52:50.044258Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"series": [
{
"id": "11422",
"ticker": "us-evacuates-beirut-embassy",
"slug": "us-evacuates-beirut-embassy",
"title": "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy",
"seriesType": "single",
"recurrence": "monthly",
"image": "",
"icon": "",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"createdAt": "2026-03-24T18:57:03.193722Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-25T06:07:53.007281Z",
"volume24hr": 98.79165,
"volume": 98.79165,
"liquidity": 1192.6291,
"commentCount": 0,
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "2",
"label": "Politics",
"slug": "politics",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
"updatedBy": 13,
"createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "104064",
"label": "Israel x Iran",
"slug": "israel-x-iran",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2026-03-03T03:22:41.390984Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:30:24.067082Z",
"isCarousel": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "126",
"label": "Trump",
"slug": "trump",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:23:16.384+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:23:16.39Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:19:01.330974Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "100265",
"label": "Geopolitics",
"slug": "geopolitics",
"forceShow": true,
"createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "104009",
"label": "Regional Spillover",
"slug": "regional-spillover",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2026-03-02T19:56:34.326195Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:43.321334Z",
"isCarousel": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "849",
"label": "Lebanon",
"slug": "lebanon",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2024-01-09 20:34:03.181+00",
"createdAt": "2024-01-09T20:34:03.207Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:22.686201Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "154",
"label": "Middle East",
"slug": "middle-east",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:26:20.585+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:26:20.601Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.104846Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "180",
"label": "Israel",
"slug": "israel",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:31:07.39+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:31:07.395Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:02.801468Z",
"isCarousel": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": true,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"seriesSlug": "us-evacuates-beirut-embassy",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Trader consensus leans heavily against a full U.S. evacuation of the Beirut Embassy by April 30, with \"No\" shares at 72.5%, reflecting the State Department's current posture of authorized departure for nonessential personnel and family members since September 2024, but no ordered departure for core diplomatic staff. Ongoing Israel-Hezbollah cross-border exchanges have heightened risks in Lebanon, yet official U.S. assessments deem the embassy viable amid diplomatic efforts for de-escalation, including recent U.N. ceasefire resolutions and U.S.-mediated talks. No primary announcements signal imminent full withdrawal, and historical precedents show embassies enduring similar volatility without evacuation, tempering trader expectations despite fluid regional dynamics.",
"context_requires_regen": false,
"context_updated_at": "2026-03-25T05:30:32.331Z"
}
}- U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?Vol 99Liq 1.2KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book