US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus leans toward \"No\" at 59% implied probability on US federal charges against former Cuban leader Raul Castro, driven by the complete absence of any Department of Justice indictment, official probe announcements, or court filings targeting him. At 93 years old and residing in Cuba—where extradition remains practically impossible due to severed diplomatic ties—no verifiable actions from US authorities have materialized. Recent US sanctions on Cuban military entities and migration policy tightenings have heightened bilateral tensions but stop short of personal charges against Castro, whose formal leadership ended in 2018. Unsubstantiated social media rumors fail to shift the evidence-based pricing, underscoring traders' focus on confirmed developments amid election-year foreign policy scrutiny.",
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