US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Ticker

us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-april-30

Volume

93.8K

24h volume

6.8K

1w volume

57.0K

Open interest

38.0K

Liquidity

18.0K

Liquidity CLOB

18.0K

Start

Mar 9, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 9, 2026

Event ID

257313

Slug

us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-april-30

Markets

1

Tags

Iran CeasefireIranGeopoliticsMiddle EastU.S. x IranIsraelWorld
Raw event data
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "**Trader consensus favors \"No\" at 76.5% for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, reflecting stalled diplomacy amid escalating military tensions.** Recent US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, including those in June 2025 and ongoing operations like Operation Epic Fury, have prompted Iran to suspend IAEA access and harden its stance against limits on uranium enrichment, missiles, or regional proxies. President Trump's March 24 claims of productive backchannel talks—denied by Tehran—focused on Strait of Hormuz access and energy pauses, but gaps persist on core nuclear demands, sanctions relief, and verification. Israeli opposition and Trump's warnings of further action underscore barriers, with no scheduled talks before the deadline despite Omani mediation efforts in February yielding only preliminary concessions.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-03-28T17:37:40.454Z"
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